Airbus Nears A350F Milestone While Analyst Confidence Grows — But Labor Tensions Linger

The countdown is on for Airbus’s long-awaited entry into the freighter market. Multiple media reports point to a first flight of the A350F around September 24, with the initial test aircraft — registered as F-WXLD — having rolled out of the hangar on August 19 in a distinctive livery featuring a delivery-box design. The milestone arrives after several postponements, and its timing could hardly be more consequential for a manufacturer juggling record order intake with simmering labor disputes.

A Tale of Two Trajectories

The share price tells a story of consolidation rather than celebration. After closing Monday at 203.65 euros, the stock edged up 1.1 percent to 205.95 euros on Tuesday. That modest bounce masks a softer recent stretch: the equity has shed 2.9 percent over the past seven trading sessions and 2.4 percent across the last month. Still, the longer view remains constructive — the shares are up 3.1 percent since the start of the year and 12 percent over twelve months, though they sit 8.0 percent below the record high of 221.25 euros reached on January 13.

Morgan Stanley has clearly seen enough to turn more bullish. On August 14, the bank lifted its price target from 227 to 255 euros while reaffirming an “Overweight” rating — implying upside of roughly 18.4 percent at the time of the revision. That optimism stands in contrast to Sadif Investment Analytics, which downgraded the stock to “Hold” days earlier with a price target of 201.51 euros.

Order Momentum Shows No Signs of Slowing

The operational picture continues to strengthen. Airbus delivered 67 commercial aircraft in July, bringing the year-to-date total to 418 units against a full-year target of 870. That leaves the European planemaker 51 deliveries ahead of Boeing, cementing its position as the world’s largest commercial aircraft manufacturer.

July also brought 204 gross orders, fueled by commitments announced around the Farnborough Air Show. Year-to-date gross orders now stand at 1,090 aircraft, while the backlog has swelled to 9,352 units — a net addition of 136 aircraft versus the prior month. The pipeline could grow further: Biman Bangladesh Airlines is reportedly preparing to finalize an order for ten aircraft — four A350-900 widebodies and six A321neo narrowbodies — with signing expected by August 31.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Airbus?

Financial Foundation Holds Firm

The momentum traces back to a strong first half. Revenue climbed 12 percent to 33.2 billion euros, while adjusted EBIT jumped 23 percent to 2.7 billion euros, supported by a record 237 deliveries in the second quarter. Net profit surged 47 percent, lifting earnings per share to 2.84 euros. The one soft spot: free cash flow before customer financing remained negative at minus 1.2 billion euros.

Management has held its full-year guidance steady: roughly 870 deliveries, adjusted EBIT of about 7.5 billion euros, and free cash flow of around 4.5 billion euros. The company has also outlined a medium-term ambition of 12 to 13 billion euros in adjusted EBIT by 2029 and announced a 5 billion euro share buyback program spanning three years, subject to ongoing shareholder approval. The announcement of those results in late July triggered a 6.5 percent surge in early trading.

Spanish Labor Dispute Eases

Not everything has run smoothly. Airbus has scaled back plans to tighten office-attendance rules after unions staged a series of strikes at Spanish facilities. Roughly 40 percent of the 14,000 employees at the Spanish site participated in walkouts that extended beyond remote-work policies to encompass transportation access, holiday arrangements, and pay. Management has since made concessions to defuse the standoff.

For investors, the picture is decidedly two-sided. On one hand, delivery and order metrics remain robust, and the A350F program opens a fresh growth avenue in the cargo segment. On the other, the recent share-price softening appears tied more to broader market movements than to fundamental deterioration — the stock still trades 4.4 percent above its 50-day moving average, keeping the medium-term uptrend intact. The Spanish labor situation, however, remains a factor worth monitoring in the weeks ahead.