Analyst Firm Raises Target for SFC Energy on Improved Profit Outlook

First Berlin Equity Research has revised its expectations upwards for SFC Energy AG, citing a more optimistic view of the company’s earnings potential for the current fiscal year. In a research note published on February 26, 2026, the firm reaffirmed its “Buy” recommendation while increasing its price target from 21 euros to 22 euros.

Revised Valuation and Market Performance

The adjustment is grounded in an updated Discounted-Cashflow (DCF) model. According to analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal, the primary driver for the new valuation is a significantly improved profitability forecast for 2026. This positive reassessment comes as the company’s shares show renewed momentum, currently trading at 15.40 euros—a gain of approximately 17.7% over the past seven days.

The 2026 Profitability Story: Defense Takes Center Stage

A central element of the updated analysis is the projected earnings growth. First Berlin states that SFC Energy’s internal guidance for adjusted EBITDA in 2026 surpasses previous analyst consensus by a notable 27%. The company itself anticipates an adjusted EBITDA between 20.0 and 24.0 million euros for the year.

This expected improvement is attributed to several key factors:
* Segment Shift: The defense business is projected to become a more substantial contributor, with its share of total revenue expected to rise from about 10% in 2025 to between 15% and 20% in 2026. This segment typically carries stronger margins.
* Product Mix: A favorable change in the sales mix is anticipated to support overall profitability.
* Reduced Headwinds: The forecast assumes lower negative currency effects and the absence of one-time special costs that impacted prior periods.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SFC Energy?

Revenue Growth: Steady Rather Than Spectacular

While the profit outlook is bright, the revenue forecast remains measured. First Berlin aligns with management’s expectation for total sales to grow by 5% to 12% in 2026 compared to the previous year. The analysts point to high visibility for the first half of the year and positive momentum from a strong fourth quarter in 2025, during which SFC Energy exceeded its own adjusted EBITDA forecast.

The research note also incorporates management’s statement anticipating robust performance in order intake, revenue, and profitability for the first six months of the year.

In summary, First Berlin’s update paints a picture of a company poised for meaningful earnings expansion, driven not by explosive sales growth but by a profitability enhancement stemming from a shifting business mix and segment performance. This refined outlook is the foundation for the new 22-euro price target.