Apple Nears Historic Shift in Global Smartphone Leadership

This Black Friday, Apple finds itself in the spotlight not just for the shopping event, but for approaching a landmark achievement in the tech industry. Fresh data suggests the Cupertino-based giant is on the verge of dethroning Samsung, ending its more than decade-long reign as the world’s top smartphone vendor. With Apple’s stock trading near its all-time peak, investors are weighing a critical question: will the iPhone 17 supercycle propel the rally further, or has the market already priced in excessive optimism?

Unexpected Strength in a Key Market

Adding significant momentum to the bullish sentiment are surprising results from China, a market that has recently been a source of investor concern. Defying fears of intense local competition, recent sales figures demonstrate remarkable resilience. During the recent Singles’ Day sales period, Apple’s sales in China grew by 3% year-over-year, even as the broader Chinese smartphone market contracted by 5%.

This outperformance in a critical growth market is calming investor nerves and serves to underscore the powerful draw of the Apple ecosystem. Coinciding with this, the company launched its own “Apple Store Shopping Event,” which notably offers gift cards instead of direct discounts—a clear signal of the company’s confidence in its pricing power.

A Projected Change at the Top

The core driver of the current positive outlook is a recent report from Counterpoint Research that has stirred considerable excitement since its release on Wednesday. The projections indicate that Apple is set to capture 19.4% of the global smartphone market share in 2025, edging past Samsung’s forecasted 18.7%.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Apple?

If this materializes, it would mark the first time since 2011 that Apple has claimed the annual top spot. This dynamic is largely fueled by exceptional demand for the iPhone 17 series, launched in September. The so-called “supercycle” validates Apple’s “premiumization” strategy, demonstrating that despite inflationary pressures, consumers are increasingly opting for more expensive high-end devices. This trend highlights Apple’s pricing authority, contrasting with the volume-driven approaches of its competitors.

Record Valuations and the Path Forward

The company’s market valuation reflects this dominant position. With a market capitalization exceeding $4.1 trillion and a P/E ratio of approximately 37, investor expectations are sky-high. The stock, closing yesterday at €239.00, sits just 2.5% below its 52-week high.

The technical outlook remains compelling. Market participants are now keenly focused on the upcoming Black Friday weekend sales figures, which will serve as a crucial test for the supercycle thesis. Analysts are anticipating double-digit revenue growth for the current quarter. A sustained breakout above key psychological resistance levels could pave the way for new record highs, provided that reported supply constraints for the iPhone 17 Pro model do not dampen the current market euphoria.