Ballard Power Shares: Signs of a Turnaround?

The Canadian fuel cell specialist Ballard Power is generating cautious optimism among market analysts. Following years of financial losses and abandoned plans for a gigafactory, evidence is mounting that a radical corporate restructuring is beginning to yield results. The critical question remains whether these improvements will be sufficient to win over a skeptical Wall Street.

Q3 Performance Exceeds Expectations

Ballard Power’s third-quarter 2025 report delivered a positive surprise, significantly outperforming market forecasts. Company revenue surged by an impressive 120% to $32.5 million, starkly exceeding the analyst consensus of $23.8 million. This growth was primarily fueled by deliveries of fuel cells for bus and rail applications across North America and European markets.

More crucially, the operational overhaul initiated by the company is demonstrating tangible effects. The gross margin expanded substantially by 71 percentage points to reach 15%. Concurrently, cash operating expenses were reduced by 40%, and total operating costs fell by 36% year-over-year. Ballard Power maintains a solid financial foundation with $525.7 million in cash reserves and no bank debt. The loss per share came in at $0.09, an improvement on the anticipated $0.11 loss.

Analyst Outlook: Cautious Adjustments Amid Lingering Doubts

The analytical community’s response to these developments remains measured. Of the 17 analysts covering the stock, eleven maintain a “Hold” recommendation, while six advise investors to sell. The average price target sits at $2.11, only marginally above the current trading level.

Recent analyst adjustments reveal a divided picture:
– UBS significantly raised its target from $1.40 to $3.50 (Neutral rating)
– Susquehanna increased its target to $3.30 (Neutral)
– HSBC values the shares at $3.40
– BMO Capital Markets maintains a pessimistic stance with a $1.10 target (Underperform rating)

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Ballard Power?

In a separate development, the investment firm Cormark made a slight upward revision to its earnings projections. Instead of forecasting a 2025 full-year loss of $0.35 per share, analyst M. Whale now anticipates a loss of $0.34 per share—a marginal but symbolic improvement. For 2026, Cormark projects losses will narrow further to $0.24 per share. Their quarterly forecast illustrates the expected gradual improvement:
– Q4 2025: Loss of $0.07 per share
– Q3 2026: Loss of $0.05 per share
– Q4 2026: Loss of $0.04 per share

These projections confirm that Ballard Power will remain unprofitable for the foreseeable future, yet the trajectory appears positive. This improvement is largely attributed to aggressive cost-cutting measures implemented under the leadership of new CEO Marty Neese.

Contract Portfolio and Strategic Shifts

One area of concern is the company’s 12-month order backlog, which decreased by 15% to $71.6 million. Management attributes this contraction to delayed orders and a strategic shift toward pursuing more sustainable contract terms. The total order backlog stands at $132.8 million.

However, significant positive developments emerged in the marine sector. During the third quarter, Ballard Power secured the largest marine contract in its history—a 6.4-megawatt order for two vessels operated by the shipping company Samskip, which will sail between Norway and the Netherlands. Furthermore, the company unveiled its ninth-generation fuel cell system, which delivers a 30% increase in system power while utilizing 40% fewer components.

Under CEO Neese’s leadership, the company is targeting positive cash flows by the end of 2027. In a pragmatic decision that prevents further capital erosion, the planned gigafactory in Texas was canceled following the withdrawal of anticipated U.S. federal funding. The coming quarters will ultimately reveal whether the current restructuring strategy provides a sufficient foundation for Ballard Power’s long-term profitability.