BASF’s Triple Test: Shareholders Weigh a Break-Up as Currency Headwinds Bite

The German chemicals giant faces a make-or-break day on April 30, when a shareholder vote on the future of its agricultural arm coincides with first-quarter earnings that are already under pressure from a weak dollar. The twin events will test whether the stock’s 21% rally since January has further to run.

The Ag Spin-Off Vote

Investors gathering in Mannheim for the annual general meeting will decide on the legal separation of the Agricultural Solutions division—the seeds and crop protection unit that generated €9.8 billion in revenue in 2024. The carve-out is the prelude to an initial public offering on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange planned for 2027.

If approved, the restructuring takes effect immediately. Livio Tedeschi, who has run the division since 2022, will become its standalone CEO from May 1, though BASF will retain a majority stake. The legal unbundling is already complete in North America, with the remaining regions expected to follow by early 2027.

The move frees the parent company to sharpen its focus on specialty chemicals and industrial transformation, channelling investment into high-margin niches such as plastic additives, aluminium oxide and polyphthalamides—materials in strong demand from automotive and electronics manufacturers.

Currency Headwinds Hit Q1

The quarterly results, released at 7:00 am on the same day, provide the second test. Analysts estimate that a weaker US dollar will shave up to €200 million off first-quarter EBITDA before special items. The currency drag comes against a backdrop of sluggish demand from the construction and automotive sectors.

BASF has responded with aggressive price increases—raising prices on household and industrial cleaning products in Europe by as much as 30% and on plastic additives by up to 20%. Cost savings are also gathering pace. The group achieved annualised savings of around €1.7 billion by the end of 2025, €100 million ahead of its original target. The programme aims to reach €2.3 billion in annual cost reductions by the end of 2026.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BASF?

For the full year, management is targeting EBITDA before special items of between €6.2 billion and €7.0 billion. The midpoint of that range sits below earlier analyst consensus of around €7.0 billion.

Dividend and Buybacks

Shareholders will also vote on a proposed dividend of €2.25 per share for the 2025 financial year. With roughly 879 million eligible shares, the total payout amounts to nearly €2 billion. If approved, the ex-dividend date falls on May 4, with payment on May 6.

A separate share buyback programme with a volume of up to €1.5 billion is running until the end of June, with a broader buyback mandate extending to 2028.

Technical Picture

The stock closed on Friday at €54.32, less than 1% below its 52-week high of €54.70. The year-to-date gain of roughly 21% has been accompanied by a relative strength index of 23.6, signalling technically oversold conditions that could provide near-term support. However, the €54 to €55 range has already capped the share price three times since 2023.

The outcome of Thursday’s double-header will likely determine whether the stock breaks higher or stalls again. Strong quarterly numbers combined with a clear shareholder mandate for the spin-off would validate the recent upward momentum. Disappointment on either front could quickly unwind those gains.