From $240 Million to $1 Billion: The Disparate GTA VI Pre-Order Estimates That Have Take-Two Stock Flying Near Record Highs

Take-Two Interactive shares traded Tuesday at €227.40 in Frankfurt, a whisker below the 52-week high of €227.80 touched just a day earlier. The stock has surged 23.39% over the past 30 days, propelled by rampant speculation about pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI — a game that will not land on shelves until November 19, 2026. Yet with no official sales data from Rockstar Games or Take-Two itself, the market is relying on a patchwork of third-party estimates that range from the conservative to the breathtaking.

Investment bank BTIG this week laid out the most detailed projection yet. Analyst Clark Lampen forecasts 15 million to 22 million pre-orders in total, with 12 million to 18 million of those opting for the Ultimate Edition at $99.99 rather than the base version at $79.99. That translates to gross revenue of $240 million to $360 million from pre-orders alone — though BTIG stresses these are top-line numbers before platform and distribution cuts, not net bookings. Separately, some market observers have floated far headier figures: unconfirmed chatter suggests pre-orders may have exceeded 39 million copies, generating roughly $1 billion in sales within the first hour of the order window opening.

Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish. Of 30 surveyed by Investing.com, 29 rate the stock a buy and just one a sell; not a single hold recommendation was recorded. The average price target stands at $281.67, with a range from $170 to $368. S&P Global’s own poll of 29 analysts produces a consensus “Strong Buy” and an average target of about $281.90. Recent target hikes have clustered around the start of GTA VI pre-orders: Bank of America raised its target from $320 to $368, BMO Capital Markets moved from $280 to $285 on June 25, and TD Cowen reaffirmed a buy rating at $284.

Not every signal is unambiguously positive. On June 15, Take-Two’s Chief Legal Officer Daniel P. Emerson sold 4,421 shares worth $950,515. The transaction was executed under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan established on March 3 — a pre-scheduled arrangement that does not normally reflect a change in management’s outlook. Still, the sale adds a cautionary footnote to the euphoria.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Take-Two?

Technical indicators flash a similar warning. The stock now trades 14.43% above its 50-day moving average and 14.54% above the 200-day average. The 14-day relative strength index stands at 75.6 — firmly in overbought territory after the month-long rally. Annualized volatility of 31% underscores how sharply the shares can react to fresh data. The price briefly dipped after the Ultimate Edition’s pricing was announced, but renewed demand estimates quickly pushed it back upward.

Take-Two itself is guiding for net bookings of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion in fiscal 2027, a roughly 20% increase over fiscal 2026 that the company attributes largely to GTA VI. The gap between that corporate target and the gross $240 million–$360 million pre-order estimate (or even the unconfirmed $1 billion rumor) highlights how much of the current valuation hinges on the game’s eventual performance. Beyond GTA VI, Take-Two plans 29 new releases by fiscal 2029, including 15 sequels, eight sports titles and three new franchises such as the shooter Judas.

Until Rockstar Games or Take-Two publishes concrete pre-order figures, investors must navigate a landscape of estimates, insider transactions and overbought signals. The next catalyst will likely come with official first-week sales data after the November launch — a moment that could either validate the current optimism or force a sharp recalibration.