Nel ASA Pays $7.5M to End a Lawsuit, but the Market Sees a Bigger Problem: No Orders

Nel ASA settled its legal dispute with Iwatani Corporation of America on June 7, agreeing to pay $7.5 million to close the chapter on a dispute over hydrogen refuelling equipment in California. Investors, however, barely blinked. By the end of the week, the water beaker’s shares had tumbled 8% to €0.24 – extending a slide that has now erased nearly 35% from the stock’s 52-week high of €0.37 reached on May 25.

The market’s cold shoulder stems from a far deeper concern: a near-total collapse in new business. Nel booked just 85 million Norwegian kroner in orders during the first quarter of 2026, a 73% plunge from the same period a year ago. Its order backlog shrank to 1.113 billion kroner, down 24% year-on-year, while revenue slipped to 148 million kroner. The EBITDA loss narrowed slightly to -100 million kroner from -115 million kroner, but the bottom line remains firmly in the red. Management has acknowledged that customers are dragging their feet on large-scale electrolyser projects, forcing the company to cut costs, adjust production, and reduce working capital.

The legal settlement with Iwatani and Cavendish Hydrogen ASA puts an end to a distraction that had been hanging over Nel since February 2024. Yet removing one uncertainty does nothing to fill the order pipeline – a reality that has kept the selling pressure on. Despite the recent rout, the stock is still up 9% over the past twelve months and has gained 24% year-to-date, reflecting the sharp rally that preceded the current downturn. But analysts remain wary: a majority currently recommend selling the shares.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

The technical picture offers little comfort. At €0.24, Nel sits roughly 9% below its 50-day moving average of €0.26, which now acts as the first resistance level. Below that, the 100-day average at €0.23 and the 200-day average at €0.21 provide potential support zones. The relative strength index stands at 37.7 – bearish but not oversold, leaving room for further declines. With annualised 30-day volatility above 92%, sharp moves in either direction remain a real possibility.

Nel does have a financial cushion – 1.443 billion kroner in cash at the end of the quarter – and a new product catalyst in the form of its latest alkaline pressure electrolyser platform unveiled in May. Whether that translates into concrete orders will determine the stock’s trajectory far more than any technical support line. The next make-or-break moment arrives on July 15, when Nel releases its half-year report. Until then, the market is left watching for any sign of a rebound in order intake. Without it, even a clean legal slate won’t be enough to arrest the slide.