Novo Nordisk’s Critical Crossroads: A December Reckoning

The investment case for Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk appears to be in tatters as 2025 unfolds, with its equity value having collapsed by more than half since January. Facing brutal price competition and legal setbacks, anxious shareholders are now focusing on a single date in early December. The central question is whether a potential breakthrough in Alzheimer’s research can reverse the company’s fortunes or if a complete collapse is imminent.

A Pivotal December Presentation

The slight share price recovery observed last Friday does little to mask the stock’s desperate need for positive catalysts. All eyes are turning toward approximately December 3, when Novo Nordisk will unveil Phase 3 (EVOKE) trial data for oral semaglutid in Alzheimer’s treatment at a specialist conference in San Diego.

The stakes for this announcement could not be higher:
* The Opportunity: Should the data demonstrate that the treatment significantly slows cognitive decline, it would unlock access to a massive new market. Market analysts suggest this outcome could potentially drive a share price surge of up to 10%.
* The Threat: If the results disappoint, the company’s narrative as an innovation leader would crumble. Novo Nordisk would then remain solely dependent on its weight-loss business, which is currently embroiled in a fierce pricing war.

Following the stock’s dramatic plunge in recent months, this data release could either establish a long-awaited market bottom or accelerate the downward trajectory.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Forced Strategic Overhaul

The corporation is engaged in a multi-front battle. In a radical move to protect eroding margins in its crucial U.S. market, Novo Nordisk is reportedly considering a direct sales approach. According to recent reports, the company plans to sell its blockbuster drugs Wegovy and Ozempic directly to American employers.

This initiative, which runs parallel to efforts by competitor Eli Lilly, aims to bypass Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs)—the intermediaries facing intense criticism for their role in drug pricing. The strategic shift is a direct response to mounting competitive pressure from cheaper generic alternatives and political demands for price reductions. The company’s recent agreement with the incoming Trump administration to lower list prices was a purely defensive maneuver to protect market share.

A Legal Blow from the Home Front

Compounding the competitive pressure, disappointing news emerged from Novo Nordisk’s domestic Danish market on Friday. The national compensation board awarded financial compensation to four patients who experienced a rare vision loss (NAION) following treatment with Wegovy or Ozempic.

While the total sum of approximately $123,000 is negligible for a corporation of this scale, the legal precedent carries significant risk. The rulings formally established a connection between the medications and the medical condition in these specific cases. Although Novo Nordisk continues to emphasize the positive benefit-risk profile of its products, the “wall of worry” for investors continues to build.