Platinum’s Bull Run Faces a Turning Point

The market for platinum is experiencing a period of extraordinary tightness, and the company now known as Valterra Platinum—formerly Anglo American Platinum—has been a primary beneficiary. However, analysts are questioning whether the record-setting rally for this pure-play producer can sustain its momentum as forecasters predict a significant shift in the market’s fundamental balance.

Supply Squeeze Fuels a Meteoric Rise

A persistent and substantial supply deficit has been the dominant story for platinum. According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), the market is headed for its third consecutive year of shortfall in 2025, with a projected deficit of 692,000 ounces. This sustained imbalance has dramatically drawn down above-ground stocks, which are estimated to fall to 3.2 million ounces in 2025 from 5.5 million ounces back in 2022. The strain on physical metal availability was further highlighted by elevated leasing rates observed in the third quarter of 2025.

On the demand side, strength is coming from multiple directions. The automotive sector, a key consumer, is expected to see demand running approximately 10% above its five-year average in 2025. Concurrently, a surge in Chinese appetite, particularly within the jewelry segment, is providing additional support. Investment demand for bars and coins has also registered a notable increase.

Independence Proves Its Worth

Against this bullish backdrop, Valterra Platinum’s shares have soared. The company’s US-listed ADRs (ANGPY) climbed 4.74% this past Friday to $11.50, marking a fourth straight session of gains. Since its demerger from parent Anglo American plc in May 2025, the standalone entity has capitalized on its focused strategy.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Anglo American Platinum?

The strategic separation was designed to unlock value for both businesses—a goal that appears to have been achieved. Since its listing, Valterra’s stock on the Johannesburg exchange has delivered a performance of roughly 100%. The ADR version has performed even more strongly, posting a total return of 119.19% over the trailing twelve-month period.

Is the Market Balance Set to Shift?

The critical question for investors now is what comes next. The WPIC’s outlook for 2026 suggests a potential reversal: the massive current deficit is forecast to swing into a modest surplus of around 20,000 ounces. This projection is heavily contingent on an easing of trade tensions and subsequent adjustments to inventory levels.

Can Valterra maintain its impressive performance in a more balanced market environment? The company’s focus on operational efficiency and its ownership of tier-one assets, such as the Mogalakwena mine, provide a solid foundation. Nevertheless, the investment landscape is becoming more complex. Going forward, broader global economic indicators and the pace of the energy transition are likely to play a more decisive role in shaping the company’s trajectory than the sheer supply scarcity that has driven recent gains.