Quantum Computing’s High-Stakes Race: IonQ and Rigetti Compete in a $97 Billion Future

The landscape of quantum computing is rapidly evolving, with IonQ and Rigetti Computing emerging as prominent contenders in this pioneering field. Both enterprises share the ambitious objective of developing fault-tolerant quantum computers, yet their technological pathways diverge significantly. Investors face a critical question: which approach will ultimately prove dominant? A detailed examination of these two firms—collectively valued at over $30 billion—reveals distinct strategies in a market poised for explosive expansion.

Market Projections Signal Unprecedented Growth

Industry forecasts paint a compelling picture for quantum technology’s future. By 2035, the total quantum technology market is projected to reach a staggering $97 billion in value. The quantum computing segment alone is anticipated to expand from $1.6 billion in 2025 to $7.3 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 34.6%. Some analysts go further, predicting the technology could generate a total economic impact approaching $1 trillion by 2035, with providers potentially capturing $50 billion in revenues.

Within this burgeoning sector, IonQ and Rigetti have established themselves as central players. IonQ commands a market capitalization of approximately $20.6 billion, while Rigetti stands at around $11 billion. Both companies are targeting premium applications across finance, pharmaceutical development, and materials science. Researchers estimate their addressable market could be worth between $15 billion and $30 billion annually from 2030 through 2040.

Divergent Technological Pathways

The core distinction between these quantum pioneers lies in their fundamental technological architectures. IonQ employs trapped ion technology, renowned for its computational precision. Meanwhile, Rigetti utilizes superconducting qubits—an approach also favored by industry giants like IBM and Google.

IonQ recently achieved a notable milestone, demonstrating a record-setting two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.99%. This precision is crucial for scaling toward fault-tolerant quantum systems. Rigetti counters with its 84-qubit Ankaa-3 system, achieving a respectable average fidelity of 99.5% for its fSim gates.

While IonQ aggressively expands its technological lead—targeting computers with 2 million qubits by 2030—Rigetti pursues a full-stack strategy. The company integrates its proprietary quantum processors with a cloud platform and developed the first multi-chip quantum processor designed for scalable systems. Rigetti’s dedicated quantum fabrication facility provides additional strategic advantages.

Intellectual Property as Competitive Moat

In quantum computing, intellectual property represents critical defensive infrastructure. IonQ has established an impressive lead in this arena, boasting over 1,000 IP assets including licensed, owned, or controlled granted patents and patent applications. The company reached this milestone in August 2025 through a combination of internal development and strategic acquisitions.

Rigetti maintains a more focused portfolio with 269 patents worldwide, of which 135 have been granted and over 76% remain active. Where IonQ emphasizes breadth and scale, Rigetti concentrates on core competencies surrounding superconducting quantum systems.

Both companies commit substantial resources to research and development. Their operational expenditures reflect a clear commitment to securing technological leadership through continuous innovation. During this early commercialization phase, the capacity to out-innovate competitors is essential for survival.

Revenue Trajectories and Scaling Capabilities

The revenue dynamics of both companies demonstrate remarkable momentum, though from different baselines.

IonQ delivers spectacular financial performance, recording 221.5% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025, reaching $39.9 million. Consequently, the company raised its full-year 2025 guidance to between $106 million and $110 million. Market experts project annual growth exceeding 41%, with some estimates suggesting a three-year growth rate of 95%.

Rigetti operates at an earlier growth stage but shows impressive dynamism. Analysts anticipate annual revenue growth of 45%. The $5.7 million sale of Novera QPU systems signals expanding commercial traction. For 2025, revenues are expected to reach approximately $14 million, with potential to approach $180 million by 2035 at a 29% growth rate.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying IonQ?

The crucial distinction: IonQ has already achieved critical mass and is accelerating from a higher base, while Rigetti must still demonstrate it can reach similar scaling.

Valuation Metrics in a Pre-Profitability Era

With neither company yet profitable, traditional valuation metrics like price-to-earnings ratios are irrelevant. Instead, investors rely on forward-looking indicators such as enterprise value to sales multiples.

IonQ trades at a substantial valuation premium reflecting its leadership position and scarcity value. By late 2025, its forward EV/sales multiple stood at an impressive 226.9. This valuation acknowledges both market leadership and IonQ’s status as one of the few publicly-traded pure-play quantum computing companies.

Rigetti demonstrates an even more extreme valuation, with a trailing twelve-month EV/sales ratio exceeding 1,300. Forward estimates also indicate substantial premium, with a forward EV/sales multiple of 612.71.

These astronomical valuations clearly indicate that investors are pricing in decades of future growth and potential market dominance. The central question remains whether either company can successfully execute their technological roadmaps and commercialization strategies to justify these premiums long-term.

Competitive Positioning and Defensive Moats

In such a dynamic, technology-intensive field, resilience against disruption is paramount. Both companies work intensively to build defensive barriers through their unique quantum computing architectures.

IonQ’s trapped-ion technology receives praise for its potential regarding high accuracy and scalability. The company is accelerating its roadmap toward delivering 2 million qubit computers by 2030. Combined with its extensive patent portfolio, this creates a formidable defensive position.

Rigetti’s full-stack approach—integrating proprietary quantum processors with a cloud platform—forms the backbone of its competitive strategy. Development of the first multi-chip quantum processor for scalable systems provides differentiation, while its quantum fabrication facility offers significant assets for research and potential partnerships.

The decisive difference: IonQ possesses a broader defensive moat through its massive patent portfolio and established market position. Rigetti scores with technological flexibility and an integrated approach but must still prove this model can scale commercially.

Investment Conclusion: Contrasting Approaches to Quantum Opportunity

IonQ and Rigetti represent two distinct wagers on the quantum computing revolution. IonQ offers the more established position with stronger revenue growth, more extensive IP foundation, and greater market capitalization—though at a correspondingly elevated valuation. Rigetti appeals with higher projected growth rates and an alternative technological approach but carries greater execution risk.

For investors with higher risk tolerance, Rigetti may present intriguing underdog potential. More conservative investors will likely prefer IonQ’s established position and demonstrated commercialization successes. In either case, both stocks represent highly speculative investments in a technology that will require years to reach its full potential. The coming 12 to 24 months will prove decisive in determining which company can deliver on its ambitious promises.