SAP Gets EU Antitrust Clearance but Stock Stays Near Floor as Earnings Report Looms Large

Investors have their eyes fixed on July 23, the date SAP will release second-quarter results after months of sliding share performance. The software heavyweight closed Friday at €138.50, a meager 0.13% gain that leaves it just 5.89% above its 52-week trough of €130.80 reached in late June. A confluence of developments — an EU antitrust settlement, a €2.6 billion buyback, and mounting geopolitical tensions — has done little to lift the stock from its prolonged slump.

The European Commission closed its case against SAP under file number AT.40823 without levying a fine. Instead, the company accepted a bundle of commitments valid for ten years, designed to give on-premise customers significantly more flexibility. An independent trustee will police compliance. If SAP violates the terms, it faces penalties up to 10% of annual revenue — roughly €3.7 billion at current figures. Customer groups UKISUG in Britain and DSAG in German-speaking Europe both applauded the outcome.

Under the agreement, clients can now choose their support provider for individual sub-areas without being locked into SAP’s own services. They may also cancel unused licenses in specific circumstances, such as when a company sheds more than 10% of its workforce within two years, files for insolvency, or sees an implementation fail. Re-entry fees for later returning to SAP support are eliminated, though refunds are capped at either six months or half the total sum.

Yet the antitrust relief has failed to ignite any rally. Further clouding the outlook is the unresolved migration from SAP’s legacy ECC platform to S/4HANA. By the fourth quarter of 2024, only 39% of roughly 35,000 ECC customers had purchased a license for the successor system. Regular ECC support ends in 2027, and extended maintenance — available until 2030 — adds two percentage points in cost. Any near-term flexibility from the antitrust deal does not alter that deadline pressure. Crystal maker Swarovski’s recent shift to SAP Cloud ERP in April 2026 underscores the gradual pace of migration among large accounts.

Geopolitical shocks have compounded the stock’s woes. Reports of US strikes on Iranian targets ended a short-lived ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, sending European technology shares broadly lower. Until the Middle East situation stabilizes, SAP remains exposed to sector-wide risk.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?

Chart watchers find little reason for optimism. The stock trades 4.95% beneath its 50-day moving average of €145.72 and a full 22.50% below the 200-day average of €178.70. The relative strength index sits at 45.8, a neutral reading that signals no clear oversold bounce in sight. If the price breaks below €130.80, it would confirm the downtrend that began from the 52-week high of €265.75 in July 2025 — a decline of nearly 48%.

Analysts, however, remain notably bullish on valuation grounds. UBS targets €205, Berenberg €215, and Jefferies cut its price objective to €210 but retains a buy rating. Bernstein Research sees fair value at €276, more than double the current quote. Diverging views exist: some houses view the battered price as a buying opportunity, while others warn that ongoing cost reductions within SAP warrant caution.

The company’s share buyback program continues uninterrupted. A tranche of up to €2.6 billion runs through the end of July, and with the stock trading at depressed levels, SAP is purchasing its own equity at a significant discount to the levels seen earlier this year. The buyback provides a floor for the stock but has yet to spark a sustained recovery.

Operationally, the first quarter offered a glimmer of progress. Total revenue rose roughly 6% to €9.56 billion, cloud revenue surged 27%, and the operating margin climbed above 30% for the first time in 13 quarters. Management’s full-year guidance calls for cloud revenue between €25.8 billion and €26.2 billion, representing constant-currency growth of 23% to 25%. The market now wants to see that growth translate into durable margin improvement.

Between now and the July 23 release — with an analyst conference scheduled for 23:00 MESZ — SAP observes its quiet period, meaning no interim commentary on sales, margins, or the outlook. Three forces will drive the share price in the meantime: the trajectory of Middle East tensions, sentiment in the broader technology sector, and the stabilizing effect of the ongoing buyback. When the numbers land, the cloud backlog and operating margin will reveal whether cost discipline is already paying off — and whether the stock can finally reverse its months-long slide.