Thyssenkrupp’s Dual Identity: A Stock Caught Between Divergent Fortunes

The Thyssenkrupp share represents a corporate dichotomy, housing both a struggling steel giant and a thriving defense contractor under one roof. This fundamental imbalance is currently driving the equity into a precarious position, as the weaknesses of one division threaten to overshadow the strengths of the other.

Significant selling pressure has gripped the stock since mid-March. The catalyst was a move by French asset manager Amundi, which reduced its voting rights stake from 5.22% to 4.92%, dipping just below the regulatory disclosure threshold. Institutional investors interpreted this reduction as a vote of no confidence in the group’s ongoing transformation strategy. The shares subsequently suffered a double-digit percentage decline in a single trading session. Currently, the stock is trading at a 52-week low of €7.72, approximately 42% below its peak from October.

The Steel Division’s Weight

Recent quarterly figures present a contradictory picture. While group revenue fell by 8% to €7.2 billion, adjusted EBIT actually improved by 10%, reaching €211 million. Nonetheless, the bottom line showed a net loss of €334 million. This was primarily driven by restructuring costs within the steel unit, which amounted to €401 million. For the full fiscal year, management anticipates a net loss ranging between €400 million and €800 million.

The unresolved future of the core steel business remains the central challenge. The planned sale to Indian firm Jindal Steel International has stalled. According to Bloomberg reports, senior managers within Thyssenkrupp are increasingly doubtful the transaction will be completed, citing unresolved questions regarding Jindal’s capital structure. In parallel, the group’s Materials Services trading subsidiary faces a critical review by the end of March. Without demonstrable operational improvements, plans for an IPO or sale by autumn 2026 will be pushed further into the future.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?

A Defense Lifeline: TKMS’s Billion-Euro Backlog

Providing a crucial counterbalance is Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS). The defense subsidiary, in which Thyssenkrupp retains a 51% stake, boasts an order backlog of €18.7 billion. Since its initial public offering in October 2025, TKMS has appreciated in value by roughly 50%.

Its pipeline of potential new business is exceptionally robust. A key decision from Canada on an order for twelve submarines, a contract potentially worth up to €37 billion, is expected between May and June 2026. In India, TKMS remains the sole bidder for a project involving six diesel-electric submarines, though the contract signing has been delayed into the new Indian fiscal year.

Analyst Divergence and Defining Deadlines

Market analysts are divided on the stock’s outlook. On March 9, JPMorgan downgraded its rating to Neutral. In contrast, Jefferies maintains a Buy recommendation with a price target of €13.

Three imminent deadlines will likely dictate the near-term direction. First is the late-March verdict on Materials Services, which will determine strategic options for 2026. Next, the half-year report on May 12 should provide an update on the stalled Jindal negotiations. Finally, the planned transfer of Thyssenkrupp’s stake in HKM to Salzgitter is scheduled for June 1. Until these events unfold, the share price will likely remain suspended between signs of operational recovery and profound strategic uncertainty, with TKMS standing as the sole unambiguous bright spot.