Barrick Mining’s Nevada Headwinds Cloud a Gold-Powered Recovery

Gold’s recent ceasefire-driven rebound above $4,700 an ounce has offered Barrick Mining a welcome reprieve, but the Canadian gold giant is fighting battles on multiple fronts that go well beyond the macro picture. While the precious metal’s stabilization after a two-day slide eases some near-term pressure, the company’s ambitious plan to spin off its North American operations is running into serious opposition from two key partners.

The proposed initial public offering of a new North American unit, targeted for late 2026, is central to Barrick’s restructuring strategy. The parent company intends to sell 10% to 15% of the entity while retaining control, with Goldman Sachs and advisor Michael Klein steering the transaction. A fresh leadership team is already in place: Tim Cribb as chief operating officer and Wessel Hamman as finance chief.

But the flagship Fourmile project in Nevada has become a flashpoint. Teck Resources holds lucrative royalty rights there, collecting 10% of net profits, a figure that jumps to 15% once production hits six million ounces. RBC analyst Josh Wolfson estimates this could shave 10% off the project’s value, which he previously pegged at $15 billion. That math makes for a less compelling package for prospective IPO investors. Barrick has so far offered little more than a reference to existing economic studies.

Adding to the friction, Newmont has filed a formal complaint alleging breach of contract. The rival miner claims Barrick has improperly diverted resources from their joint venture into Fourmile and is asserting a contractual right of first refusal. These disputes threaten to derail the IPO timeline just as the company needs to present a clean story to the market.

The operational picture, however, tells a different story. Barrick generated a record $7.7 billion in cash from operations in 2025, with free cash flow approaching $4 billion. Shareholders received a record $2.4 billion in returns. For the current year, management is guiding for gold production of 2.90 million to 3.25 million ounces, with all-in sustaining costs between $1,760 and $1,950 per ounce, based on an assumed gold price of $4,500.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?

The stock has failed to reflect that strength. Trading at C$55.37 in Toronto, shares have shed nearly 8% since the start of the year and sit roughly 8% below their 50-day moving average. The relative strength index has slipped to 29.6, a level that typically signals oversold conditions. On Monday alone, the stock lost 5.8% to close at $40.45 in New York.

Analyst sentiment remains cautiously constructive, though targets have been trimmed. CIBC cut its price objective from C$67 to C$63 while maintaining an “Outperformer” rating. UBS lowered its target to C$50 from C$55, keeping a “Buy.” ATB Cormark downgraded the stock from “Moderate Buy” to “Hold” in early April. The consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average target of C$54.17, still above the current price.

Bernstein’s Bob Brackett sees relative value in Barrick. Most mining equities are trading above their five-year averages, but Barrick’s price-to-earnings multiple of 13.8x is roughly 20% below its historical median of 17.3x. Brackett trimmed his 2026 gold price forecast slightly to $4,818 an ounce but left long-term projections unchanged, expecting gold to reach $6,100 by 2030 on the back of structural central bank demand.

Two key dates loom in May. Barrick holds its virtual annual meeting on May 8, followed by first-quarter results before the market opens on May 11. That earnings call will be a critical test. Management must demonstrate that operational momentum is holding, while investors will demand clarity on the Teck and Newmont disputes. The future of the Reko Diq copper project in Pakistan, where Barrick has slowed development and launched a reassessment due to rising security risks, is also expected to dominate analyst questions.