Rheinmetall’s $14.5 Billion Revenue Target Masks a Share Price in Freefall

The disconnect at Rheinmetall has rarely been starker. While the defence contractor’s order book bulges and management projects a record €14.0 to €14.5 billion in group revenue for 2026 — representing 40 to 45 percent growth year-on-year — the stock continues to drift lower, trading roughly 30 percent below its 52-week high.

That gap between operational momentum and market sentiment was on full display at the Hannover Messe, where chief executive Armin Papperger used the industrial fair to outline a strategy built on scale. The company has more than decupled its artillery ammunition production since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Papperger signalled that costs are now coming down as volumes rise. Unit prices for artillery shells are already lower than they were five or six years ago, he noted.

“We started work on some orders with a handshake — the contract came later,” Papperger said, underscoring the urgency driving the group’s investment decisions. The company now holds roughly €8 billion in critical inventory to buffer against supply chain disruptions, a drag on working capital that management deems unavoidable. Rheinmetall reviews its global supply chains on a weekly basis.

The Hannover Messe also served as a showcase for the group’s civilian technology ambitions. Visitors watched vehicles in Düsseldorf being remotely controlled from Hanover, and a pilot project with Rheinbahn AG will see a teleoperated shuttle begin operations at Düsseldorf Airport from May 2026. The demonstration signals that Rheinmetall is pushing beyond its core defence business into dual-use robotics and autonomous systems.

Yet the share price tells a different story. The stock has shed about 12 percent since the start of the year and now sits below its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. A death cross formed back in December, and a head-and-shoulders pattern has added to the technical pressure. At roughly €1,405, the shares are just over three percent above their 52-week low of €1,357.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?

Analysts, however, remain emphatically bullish. Jefferies raised its price target on April 20 from €2,020 to €2,220. Bernstein, Berenberg, Deutsche Bank and Barclays have all reiterated buy recommendations. The average analyst target now stands at around €2,129 — implying upside of nearly 50 percent from current levels.

Two key dates in May could help realign the stock with the fundamentals. On May 7, Rheinmetall releases its first-quarter results. The consensus estimate calls for earnings per share of €39.61, a figure that would represent a roughly 166 percent jump compared with the full-year 2025 result. The operating margin is expected to climb to around 19 percent for the full year. Notably, 91 percent of the targeted 2026 revenue is already covered by existing orders.

The annual general meeting follows on May 12, with the dividend payment — proposed at €11.50 per share, up 42 percent year-on-year and marking the fourth consecutive increase — due on May 15. The ex-dividend date is May 13.

The pay packet for the man at the helm has also drawn attention. Papperger earned over €10 million in 2025, according to calculations by the Handelsblatt Research Institute — two and a half times his previous year’s compensation and enough to rank him sixth among the highest-paid CEOs in the DAX.

Whether the first-quarter numbers can close the gap between analyst optimism and market scepticism remains to be seen. For now, Rheinmetall’s record backlog and expanding production capacity are doing little to lift a stock that appears trapped in its own technical bear market.