Deutsche Telekom’s Q1 Report Looms as Merger Talk and Technical Weakness Collide

The gap between what analysts think Deutsche Telekom is worth and where its shares actually trade has rarely been wider. With the stock hovering near 27.71 euros — more than 14 percent below its level a month ago — the market is pricing in a level of uncertainty that stands in stark contrast to the bullish consensus among the sell-side.

The trigger for the latest bout of selling came on April 22, when reports of a potential full merger with T-Mobile US sent the shares sliding 5.15 percent, making them the worst performer in the DAX that day. A modest recovery of roughly 0.40 percent the following session brought the stock to 27.53 euros, but the bounce has done little to repair the technical damage. The share price now sits below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages, with the 200-day line at 29.48 euros acting as a clear resistance level. From the 52-week high of 34.25 euros, the stock remains roughly 25 percent adrift.

Analysts, however, see a different picture. JPMorgan’s Akhil Dattani argues that a full combination with T-Mobile US could help close the valuation discount between the parent and its high-growth American subsidiary. Deutsche Telekom currently trades at about 14 times expected earnings, while T-Mobile US commands a multiple closer to 20. Dattani maintains a price target of 40 euros, a view echoed by Barclays at 39.50 euros and the Deutsche Bank at 42 euros. Across 68 analysts covering the stock, the average target stands at 40.10 euros — implying upside of roughly 45 percent from current levels.

The question is what catalyst can close that gap. The answer may come on May 13, when Deutsche Telekom reports first-quarter results. Investors will focus on adjusted EBITDA, with management targeting 47.4 billion euros for the full year. The group also aims for free cash flow of nearly 20 billion euros. In the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue grew around 2.5 percent to 31.72 billion euros — solid but unspectacular.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?

The U.S. unit remains the key driver. Deutsche Telekom holds a 52.8 percent stake in T-Mobile US, and the subsidiary’s growth trajectory will be central to the Q1 narrative. The question is whether the operational numbers can drown out the noise around a potential mega-merger that has divided opinion among analysts. Deutsche Bank’s Robert Grindle, while maintaining a buy recommendation, has cautioned about the possible complications of an even larger corporate structure.

Beyond the merger speculation, the company is pushing ahead with its business customer strategy. Since this spring, Deutsche Telekom has been marketing satellite internet via SpaceX’s Starlink network — the only German network operator to do so. The service targets companies and public authorities that lack adequate fiber or mobile coverage.

For now, the technical picture remains fragile, and the market is waiting for proof that recent network investments are paying off. The Q1 report will need to show that the U.S. growth engine is running smoothly and that the operational story can compete with the strategic headlines.