PayPal’s NFL Huddle Can’t Mask the Pressure Ahead of Q1 Earnings

The confetti from PayPal’s splashy NFL partnership has barely settled, but the stock is already back in the red. Shares of the payments giant are trading around €42.50, roughly 14% lower since the start of the year, as investors weigh the optics of a marquee sports deal against a laundry list of operational headaches.

The multi-year agreement, announced in late April, designates PayPal as the official peer-to-peer payment partner of the National Football League. The deal plugs the company’s Venmo and PayPal apps directly into the game-day economy, allowing fans to split costs on tickets, beer, and merchandise with a few taps. To drive adoption, PayPal is dangling prize pools of up to $1 million in giveaways throughout the season. The move taps into Venmo’s triple-digit user base in the US, where the app already processes a growing share of P2P transactions — global volumes across both platforms rose 7% last year.

Yet the partnership, for all its visibility, has done little to quiet the skeptics on Wall Street. Of more than 40 analysts covering the stock, only a small minority rate it a buy. The majority sit on the sidelines with a “hold” rating, pointing to fierce competition in branded checkouts from Apple Pay and Block’s Cash App, as well as American Express’s expanding role as the league’s official credit card partner starting next season.

A New Captain, Same Storm

Enrique Lores took the helm in early March, replacing Alex Chriss with a mandate to accelerate the company’s technological overhaul. The former HP chief is now laser-focused on stabilizing transaction margins that have come under relentless pressure. The core checkout-button business, once PayPal’s crown jewel, grew just 1% in the final quarter of last year — a stark reminder of how far the company has fallen from its pandemic-era heights.

Lores is betting heavily on artificial intelligence to reverse the slide. According to the Evident AI Index 2026, PayPal employs more AI talent than any other firm in its peer group. Partnerships with Google and OpenAI are expected to measurably boost user engagement in the coming months. Still, the market remains unconvinced. Analyst downgrades and ongoing shareholder lawsuits continue to weigh on sentiment.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying PayPal?

The Dividend Cushion

To keep income-focused investors onside, the board launched a dividend program late last year, currently paying $0.14 per share. It’s a modest olive branch for a stock that sits roughly 37% below its 52-week high. The gap to that peak of €67.50 could widen further if the upcoming quarterly report disappoints.

Earnings in the Crosshairs

All eyes are now on May 5, when PayPal releases first-quarter results before the opening bell. The company’s own guidance for fiscal 2026 included a worst-case scenario of a slight decline in earnings per share. Consensus estimates put Q1 profit at $1.27 per share, down from the year-ago period, on revenue of roughly $8.2 billion. Miss those marks, and the stock’s recent monthly gains could evaporate quickly.

The analyst community is deeply divided on what comes next. Bank of America raised its price target to $55 after the NFL deal, maintaining a buy rating. Mizuho sits at $50 with a neutral stance, citing rising competition from AI-powered payment tools. Morgan Stanley is the most bearish, with a $34 target and an “underweight” call.

For now, PayPal’s NFL partnership gives the brand a massive stage, but it doesn’t fix the fundamentals. The real test comes next week, when Lores and his team must show that the strategy — from AI investments to sports sponsorships — can actually move the needle on profitability.