Almonty’s Options Frenzy Signals a Catalyst Is Brewing

The options market is flashing an unusually loud signal for Almonty Industries. On Thursday, 5,235 call options changed hands — a 166% surge above the average daily volume. That kind of activity typically precedes a major event, and with a stock split deadline looming and wolfram prices hitting record highs, the pieces are falling into place.

The call option expiring May 15, 2026 with a $40 strike price carried one of the highest implied volatilities among all US equity options. Elevated implied volatility means the market is pricing in a significant move — direction unknown. Often, that points to an upcoming catalyst, such as an earnings report.

A Rally That Defies Gravity

The recent pullback from April’s highs looks minor in the broader context. Almonty’s shares have gained roughly 149% year-to-date and more than 700% over the past twelve months. At around C$29.94, the stock still trades more than 20% above its 50-day moving average of C$24.77 and more than double its 200-day average.

But the short-term picture is less rosy. The relative strength index sits at 76.7, firmly in overbought territory. The annualized 30-day volatility of over 100% underscores just how turbulent trading has been.

Wolfram Prices Fuel the Fire

The rally rests on a tangible commodity trend. The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) — the key traded form of wolfram — has surged roughly 50% since the start of the year, from $920 to $1,375 per metric ton unit. Spot prices recently hit a record $3,040 per metric ton equivalent.

Almonty is a direct beneficiary. Its Sangdong mine in South Korea and the newly acquired Gentung project in Montana are two of the few Western sources of wolfram outside China — a strategic advantage that grows as Beijing tightens export controls on 25 strategic metals.

The impact on the semiconductor industry is already visible. Japanese suppliers are warning of tight inventories of tungsten hexafluoride, a material essential for chip production. Samsung and SK Hynix could face shortages by summer.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Analysts Line Up Behind the Story

Texas Capital initiated coverage on April 17 with a buy rating and a $25 price target, citing the wolfram price surge. The firm quickly upgraded to “Strong Buy.” Other houses are similarly bullish. DA Davidson has a $25 target and a Buy rating, B. Riley Financial sees $23, and Oppenheimer rates the stock Outperform with a $19 target. The average analyst target stands at C$23.71, with the highest at C$36. Eight analysts recommend buying the stock; none recommend selling.

The Pentagon is adding pressure. Starting in 2027, the US Department of Defense will require wolfram from non-Chinese suppliers. The US government has already exempted Almonty’s ores from current tariffs, contingent on a long-term supply agreement with a partner in Pennsylvania.

Valuation Remains a Puzzle

The valuation signals are mixed. A price-to-book ratio near 23 and a price-to-sales ratio of almost 200 suggest a hefty premium. The company is not yet profitable, so the price-to-earnings ratio is negative. A discounted cash flow model, however, points to a fair value of C$43.36, implying roughly a third of upside from current levels.

Almonty has ample funding for its growth phase. An oversubscribed IPO raised $90 million in July 2025, followed by a $129 million capital increase in December 2025. The next quarterly report will show whether that translates into profitability — and the options market appears to be betting on exactly that.

Key Dates on the Horizon

A crucial deadline is approaching. Almonty must implement a previously approved share consolidation by April 30. The ratio could be as high as five-to-one. Details on the timeline are expected at the annual general meeting on June 8.

The Sangdong mine is already in its first phase, processing about 640,000 tonnes of ore annually to produce roughly 2,300 tonnes of wolfram concentrate. Management plans to double capacity by 2027. At full output, Sangdong could supply 40% of global demand outside China.

The stock closed Friday near C$30. With the share consolidation due by month-end and the AGM in June, the next few weeks promise to be eventful. The options market seems to be pricing in exactly that.