Scottish Mortgage Braces for a Double IPO Salvo as Share Price Lags the Portfolio’s Momentum

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust is heading into one of its most densely packed weeks in recent memory, with two multibillion-dollar flotations, a dividend milestone, and a shareholder vote on private-market exposure all bearing down on the same stretch of days. The trust’s own stock, however, has been losing ground. After a 5.39% drop last week, shares closed Friday at €17.10, roughly 12% below May’s year-high of €19.50 — even as the underlying portfolio undergoes a sweeping revaluation from the imminent listings.

The spark that lit the fuse came from Anthropic, the developer of the Claude AI assistant. The company confidentially filed an IPO prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, triggering an immediate uplift in Scottish Mortgage’s net asset value. The trust holds a 2.6% stake in Anthropic, whose annualised revenue has exploded from $9 billion to around $30 billion by early 2026, according to one estimate. A more aggressive projection, based on a $65 billion funding round completed in May 2026 at a valuation near $1 trillion, puts the run-rate as high as $47 billion — underlining the potential scale of the re-rating once the stock begins trading.

Yet the bigger weight in Scottish Mortgage’s private portfolio is SpaceX. The space exploration company is set to list on June 12 at an estimated price of $135 per share, giving Elon Musk’s venture a valuation of roughly $1.6 trillion as calculated by Baillie Gifford. That single holding now represents 21% of the trust’s total assets. Combined with ByteDance, Stripe, Anthropic and other unlisted names, private companies account for well over 40% of the fund — a concentration that both fuels upside and invites scrutiny.

Dividend Tradition Meets Institutional Conviction

Amid the IPO buzz, Scottish Mortgage quietly extended its 43-year streak of annual dividend increases. The total payout was raised by 4.3% to 4.57 pence per share, with the final tranche of 2.97 pence going ex-dividend in the coming days. The steady income growth serves as a counterweight to a portfolio that carries a 30-day annualised volatility of nearly 35% — a deliberate design to reassure income-focused investors in the trust’s otherwise high-octane mix.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Scottish Mortgage Investment?

Institutional buyers have been stepping in off the back of the revaluation. Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management increased its voting rights stake to over 3% last week, a signal of long-term conviction. Meanwhile, the trust itself placed 3.85 million shares at 1,545 pence and another 2.35 million at 1,516.50 pence — both at a premium to net asset value — raising around £95 million in total. The placements suggest that even as the secondary market cap suffered a weekly loss, primary demand for the trust’s paper remains robust.

AGM Vote Puts Private-Market Ceiling to the Test

Perhaps the most consequential event for Scottish Mortgage’s structure will occur on July 2, when shareholders gather in Edinburgh to vote on raising the current 30% cap on private market investments. In April the trust already secured a temporary exemption allowing an additional £250 million of unlisted commitments above that threshold, a move designed to prevent dilution in fast-moving private deals. The vote will determine whether the board can keep pace with a portfolio that is increasingly dominated by pre-IPO names.

The concentration risk is not lost on the market. With SpaceX alone accounting for a fifth of assets, any post-IPO lock-up expiry or disappointment in the listing price could hit the trust hard. The same dynamic applies to Anthropic, though its smaller weight provides more cushion. The share price, now at €17.10 with a relative strength index of 47.4, sits comfortably above its 50-day moving average of €16.57 but well below the May top. Year-to-date the stock is still up 23%, though the gap between portfolio value and market price has widened as short-term traders cash in.

What happens next hinges on how the market prices Anthropic at its debut — and whether the SpaceX listing on June 12 delivers the revaluation that Scottish Mortgage’s book value is already anticipating. The trust’s net asset value rose 27.4% in the financial year to March 2026, pushing total assets to £13.82 billion, while its 10-year NAV total return of 435% dwarfs the benchmark’s 234%. Those numbers suggest the portfolio is firing on all cylinders. The question is whether the share price will catch up.