Nemetschek’s 58% Slide Masks a 35% SaaS Boom – Analysts Still See a Bargain

The gap between Nemetschek’s operating performance and its stock price has rarely been wider. The German software group’s shares slipped to a fresh 52-week low of €50.45 on Friday, closing at €50.70 with a 2.31% daily loss. Over the past twelve months, the equity has shed roughly 58% of its value, and the year-to-date decline stands at nearly 44%. That puts the stock more than 63% below its 52-week peak of €137.90.

Jefferies has kept its “buy” recommendation intact but slashed the price target to €70 from €90, a move analysts say reflects sector headwinds rather than any deterioration in Nemetschek’s fundamentals. “The second-quarter reporting season for European software won’t be a major catalyst,” wrote analyst Charles Brennan, noting that investors have not been rushing back into the space. Other technology sectors are drawing more interest, leaving names like Nemetschek in the cold.

Technical signals are turning increasingly bearish. The stock now trades 17% below its 50-day moving average and more than 35% under the 200-day line. The relative strength index has sunk to 29.8, firmly in oversold territory. On June 25, a “bearish inside day” pattern with a sell rating was flagged by wallstreetONLINE. Over the past week, the shares lost 5.7%, and the 30-day decline has accelerated to nearly 21%.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nemetschek?

Yet the company’s first-quarter numbers tell a starkly different story. Revenue rose 17% on a currency-adjusted basis to €313.1 million, while subscription and SaaS revenue surged 35.4%. EBITDA climbed almost 30% to €98.4 million, producing a margin of 31.4%. The Build segment was a standout, with segment revenue jumping 29.8% to €134.7 million and EBITDA leaping 49% to €53.2 million. Net profit reached €60.4 million, or €0.52 per share.

Management reaffirmed its full-year guidance for organic revenue growth of 14% to 15% and an EBITDA margin between 32% and 33%. Despite those numbers, the market remains fixated on the broader software sector’s valuation compression. High-growth European software stocks have been under relentless pressure, and Nemetschek’s premium multiple has made it a particular target.

The next potential turning point arrives on July 30, when Nemetschek releases its half-year report. Investors will be watching closely to see whether the strong SaaS momentum can persist – and whether the market is finally willing to look past sector sentiment and reward the underlying growth.