Novo Nordisk’s Weekly Insulin Arrives in India as Buyback Buoys Shares Through Pipeline Blip

Novo Nordisk has opened the door to one of the world’s fastest-growing diabetes markets with the launch of Awiqli in India, while a separate snag in its obesity pipeline does little to stall a stock recovery that has been underpinned by a hefty buyback programme. The Danish drugmaker is betting that a once-weekly injection can capture a sizeable chunk of a country where more than 101 million people live with diabetes and another 136 million are pre-diabetic.

Awiqli, a basal insulin based on the active ingredient insulin icodec, was introduced in India on 9 July — the seventh market globally after Canada, Germany, China, Italy, Japan and the United States. Vikrant Shrotriya, Novo Nordisk’s India head, said at the launch in New Delhi that a weekly dose of 70 units would cost the equivalent of $2.74. A 1-ml pen is priced at 2,611 rupees and the 3-ml version at 7,833 rupees. At present roughly 6 million Indians use insulin therapy, and Novo Nordisk expects that number to rise to 9 million in the near term. The Indian insulin market is forecast to expand from $660.5 million to $916.4 million by 2034.

The appeal of Awiqli lies in cutting the annual injection burden from 365 basal insulin shots to just 52. The approval covers both type-1 and type-2 diabetes in adults and is backed by the ONWARDS clinical programme involving more than 4,000 participants, including Indian patients. The data show a superior reduction in HbA1c and a longer time in target range compared with daily insulin glargine U100.

While the diabetes business gains a new growth engine, Novo Nordisk’s next-generation obesity pipeline has hit a minor speed bump. The company has withdrawn a phase 2 comparator study for the injection device of CagriSema, its combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide that is widely seen as a key successor to Wegovy. The trial was launched on 21 January 2026 and last updated on 7 July. Market observers view the move as limited in scope — the core GLP-1 platform remains intact, and sentiment will hinge more on overall pipeline progress than on a single scrapped study.

Parallel early-stage work continues, including a dose-escalation study for an experimental obesity drug. Meanwhile, the group faces intense competition from Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and Mounjaro franchise, which has been putting pressure on pricing in the obesity space.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

The stock has been on a steady recovery since hitting a 52-week low of €30.25 on 2 March. On Friday, the B-share closed at €43.32, up 1.29% on the day. The monthly gain stands at 16.78%, although the shares remain down 3.04% year to date and 29.22% lower than a year ago. From the March trough, the stock has bounced more than 43%, but it still trades almost 29% below the all-time high of €61.20 reached in July 2025.

Technically, the shares are sitting comfortably above both the 50-day moving average of €39.51 and the 200-day moving average of €40.60. The 14-day relative strength index of 66 points to positive momentum that is beginning to plateau but remains short of overbought territory. Annualised volatility stands at 30.23%.

A critical factor behind the rally is the ongoing share repurchase programme. Novo Nordisk is buying back B-shares worth up to 15 billion Danish kroner over a 12-month period starting 4 February 2026. By 3 July, the company had purchased roughly 23 million B-shares at an average price of 270.32 kroner each, totalling around 6.2 billion kroner. Novo Nordisk now holds 40,194,480 of its own B-shares, equivalent to 0.9% of the combined A- and B-share capital. The buyback is executed almost daily and is viewed by market participants as a crucial technical prop amid a competitive landscape that continues to weigh on obesity-drug margins.

Analyst sentiment, after months of downgrades, has begun to stabilise. HSBC raised its price target in early July from 280 to 300 kroner, and Nordea upgraded the stock from hold to buy in June. Yet caution remains: J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank have both maintained their hold ratings. The divergence underscores a lingering question — how much of the recent recovery reflects genuine fundamental improvement versus short-covering and technical demand from the buyback.

The next major catalyst for investors will be the half-year results due in August, where updated guidance on obesity revenue, details on oral Wegovy tablet sales in the U.S., and fresh commentary on the competitive threat from Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide products will be closely watched. Until then, the daily rhythm of share repurchases, sector sentiment, and analyst notes will likely keep the stock tethered to its recent recovery range.