Airbus Counters Fuel Crisis with Unmanned Defence Push as 8,700-Jet Backlog Holds Steady

The European planemaker is walking a tightrope between a punishing kerosene shock and a strategic pivot into autonomous military systems. While its shares drifted up 0.46% to €43.40 on Tuesday, the year-to-date decline of 11.43% tells a grimmer story. The stock sits barely above its 50-day moving average of €42.69, a far cry from the 200-day line at €47.07 and a long way from breaking the broader downtrend.

The trigger for sector-wide anxiety is unmistakable. Jet fuel prices have surged from $85–90 a barrel to between $150 and $200, driven by the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict that has disrupted airspace and pushed operating costs through the roof. The International Air Transport Association slashed its global airline profit forecast for 2026 by nearly half, from $41bn to $23bn, with European carriers alone facing an extra €1.7bn in fuel bills.

Yet CEO Guillaume Faury struck a notably calm tone at the ILA Berlin air show. The company’s order backlog still stands at more than 8,700 aircraft, and airlines are scrambling to lock in more fuel-efficient models. As Faury put it, those who burn less kerosene survive the price squeeze better — and Airbus’s modern jets fit that bill. No wave of cancellations has materialised.

On the defence side, Airbus went on the offensive at ILA, unveiling a new U-class of unmanned systems. The star of the show is the U145, a fully autonomous cargo helicopter derived from the proven H145 family. It carries up to 3,800kg at take-off, uses a nose ramp and special cargo floor for easy loading, and — crucially — has no physical cockpit. Sensors and artificial intelligence handle the flying. The first flight with a safety pilot is slated for the end of 2026, with full operational capability expected in the early 2030s. Alongside it, the U760 Ravenstorm combat drone made an appearance, designed to support pilots in air-to-ground attacks.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Airbus?

airbus is not banking on a single government contract for the U145. A spokesperson confirmed the platform was not developed for any specific procurement programme, but rather positioned to meet future military needs. That absence of a funded order leaves investors waiting for the next step: converting prototypes into real, signed deals.

Elsewhere at the show, Airbus announced a separate push into sustainable aviation fuel. Together with Technip Energies, Safran and Tereos, it has set up a joint venture called Rebound, which plans to build a plant in the port of Dunkirk producing 160,000 tonnes of renewable jet fuel per year. The technology converts agricultural feedstocks into low-emission fuel. Formal closure of the venture is expected in the second half of 2026. This is not mere window-dressing: the EU mandates a 6% SAF blend by 2030, while global consumption today sits at just 0.8%. The pressure to scale up is immense.

Back on the trading floor, the technical picture remains mixed. The relative strength index at 51 signals neutral momentum. The stock has stabilised just above the 50-day average, but remains nearly 8% below the 200-day line. The key test for the equity in coming months will be whether Faury’s confidence in the order backlog proves justified. The next delivery numbers and a possible production rate update — likely with the half-year results in July — should provide the clearest signal.

For now, Airbus has presented a coherent narrative: civil headwinds are real but contained by an enormous backlog, while defence autonomy and green fuel offer growth avenues. The market is listening, but it wants to see binding contracts, not just prototypes and joint ventures.