Almonty Industries Receives Major Valuation Upgrades Amid Supply Squeeze

A significant reassessment of Almonty Industries is underway among market analysts, driven by the successful commissioning of its Sangdong mine in South Korea and a transformative shift in the global tungsten market. The commencement of ore shipments has coincided with severe Chinese export restrictions, creating a potent scenario that has prompted several research firms to dramatically increase their price targets for the company’s shares.

Supply Constraints Fuel Price Surge

The core catalyst for this renewed analyst enthusiasm stems from a developing supply crisis. China, which has historically dominated global tungsten production, implemented substantially tighter export controls at the end of 2025. According to market data, these restrictions brought shipments to a near-standstill at times.

This geopolitical development triggered a remarkable price rally. The metal’s value surged by over 160% throughout 2025, with gains continuing into the first weeks of 2026. Almonty CEO Lewis Black has characterized the market dynamic as a genuine supply shortage, noting it has allowed pricing to break free from historical control mechanisms for the first time in decades.

Analyst Targets More Than Double

In direct response to these conditions, research houses have issued sweeping revisions to their valuations for Almonty. Couloir Capital made a particularly striking move, more than doubling its fair value estimate for the stock from CAD 7.69 to CAD 19.30. This upward adjustment is rooted in a revised long-term price forecast for tungsten, which the firm raised from $450 to $800 per metric tonne unit (MTU).

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Other institutions quickly followed. DA Davidson and B. Riley both lifted their price objectives to $18 and $17 per share, respectively, attaching buy recommendations to their updated analyses. This collective bullishness reflects confidence in Almonty’s operational progress as its processing facilities at Sangdong come online as planned, paving the way for a phased ramp-up to full capacity by 2027.

Institutional Investors Take Notice

The combination of operational execution and favorable macro tailwinds has attracted substantial attention from major financial players. The number of institutional funds holding positions in Almonty jumped by 55% in the latest quarter, reaching a total of 107.

Van Eck Associates executed one of the most aggressive builds, expanding its stake by over 13,000% in the fourth quarter. The asset manager now holds a position valued at approximately $100 million. Other significant new investments were reported by Encompass Capital and Next Century Growth Investors, each establishing positions worth tens of millions of dollars. This institutional inflow has supported a powerful share price advance on the Toronto exchange, propelling the equity from around CAD 2 to a peak exceeding CAD 28 within a twelve-month period.

All eyes are now on the upcoming quarterly report scheduled for release on March 19, 2026. These financial results will provide the first concrete data on production performance under the new, elevated price environment. Given the current high valuation, the margin for operational delays is slim; the figures will need to substantiate the market’s elevated expectations.