Almonty’s Tungsten Moment: A $1.2 Billion War Chest Meets a Market Still Finding Its Feet

The numbers orbiting Almonty Industries have become almost vertigo-inducing. Tungsten prices have climbed 622 percent between January 2025 and April 2026, according to the IEA. The company’s own revenue jumped 498 percent in the second quarter to $43.0 million, with mining operating income reaching $26.1 million. And yet the shares closed Friday at €15.17, down 1.2 percent on the day and roughly a quarter below their April peak of €20.61.

That gap between the headline momentum and the day-to-day price action captures the central tension now facing investors in the tungsten producer. The strategic story has rarely been more compelling — but the operational proof is still being written.

A Balance Sheet Transformed

Part of that story is financial. Almonty ended June with a cash position of C$1.2 billion, a dramatic leap from the C$268.4 million on hand at the end of December 2025. The jump traces back to a convertible bond completed in June that raised US$800 million, giving the company the firepower to fund the expansion of its Sangdong mine in South Korea and, by late August, to authorize a share buyback program of up to US$300 million.

The company has also reshaped where its shares trade. After voluntarily delisting from the Toronto Stock Exchange in late July, Almonty now lists solely on the Nasdaq under the ticker ALM and in Frankfurt as ALI1. The move shifts the center of gravity toward US capital markets, and the company’s late-June inclusion in the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices should boost visibility among international institutional investors.

Analyst Validation Arrives

This week brought a fresh endorsement. Jefferies initiated coverage with a buy rating and a price target of $26.25, citing Almonty’s position in the build-out of Western tungsten supply chains. The rationale taps into a broader geopolitical shift: with 83 percent of global tungsten production coming from China, Western governments are increasingly treating the metal as strategic.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

The policy tailwinds are hard to miss. Japan and the US reaffirmed their $550 billion trade agreement on Friday, with explicit attention to critical minerals and concerns over Chinese export controls. India, meanwhile, is pushing its own resource autonomy agenda through an eighth auction round covering 20 mineral blocks across nine states. Tungsten — essential for tools, defense, and electronics — has become emblematic of this supply-chain realignment.

The Sangdong Anchor

At the center of Almonty’s operational story sits Sangdong, where Phase I is targeting annual output of 640,000 tonnes of ore. The company recently extended its offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders by more than 20 years, while increasing the contracted volume by 40 percent. Such long-term customer commitments carry particular weight in commodity cycles, offering pricing stability and decades of planning certainty.

The strategic positioning, however, only goes so far. The shares have climbed 320 percent over the past twelve months and 91 percent since the start of the year, with a 31 percent gain on a monthly basis. That kind of run — against a backdrop of 87 percent annualized volatility — leaves the stock vulnerable to consolidation, and the current 26 percent distance from the 52-week high reflects a market still digesting the move.

The Question That Remains

Investor forums are already debating whether the buyback is propping up the share price while the real value driver — the Sangdong ramp-up against persistently high tungsten prices — has yet to prove itself in the numbers. The next quarterly results, expected in roughly two months, should provide an empirical answer. Until then, US interest rate policy remains a risk factor that could pressure commodity stocks broadly, independent of their fundamental narratives.

The tungsten revival story is bigger than any single company. Almonty, with a producing mine, a fortified balance sheet, and a contract book extending decades into the future, has become its most visible embodiment. Whether that visibility translates into sustained shareholder value will depend on the operational execution that the coming quarters will reveal.