BYD’s Export Surge Tells Only Half the Story as Shares Languish Near 52-Week Lows

The numbers rolling out of BYD’s overseas operations read like the kind of growth story that usually sets investors’ pulses racing. In August alone, the Chinese automaker moved 189,466 new-energy vehicles across international borders — a year-on-year jump of 134.45 percent that marked the fifth consecutive record month for exports. Cumulative overseas sales through August reached 1.158 million units, already surpassing the 1.0496 million vehicles BYD shipped abroad during the entirety of 2025.

Yet the equity market has responded with a collective shrug. The stock closed Friday at EUR 9.45, down 0.8 percent on the day and roughly 24 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 12.49 set in October. The shares now trade beneath their 200-day moving average of EUR 10.41 — a technical signal that points to a trend under pressure, however robust the underlying business may appear.

A Business Outgrowing Its Home Turf

The export figures underscore a fundamental shift in BYD’s commercial center of gravity. International markets now account for 43.03 percent of total vehicle sales, and the overseas revenue stream reached 181.268 billion yuan in the first half, a 33.92 percent increase that represents 52.57 percent of group turnover. That overseas strength has become essential compensation for a domestic market where competitive pressures continue to bite.

The contrast is stark when examining the company’s financial trajectory. Second-quarter revenue slipped 3.2 percent to 194.6 billion yuan — the fourth consecutive quarterly decline — yet net profit climbed 30 percent year on year to 8.2 billion yuan, marking the first earnings increase in five quarters. The export engine alone bridged the gap between a weakening home market and profitability.

That said, the earnings figure landed well short of what the Street had anticipated. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, UBS, Citi, Deutsche Bank and CMBI had collectively projected profit growth of roughly 48 percent, making the actual 30 percent advance something of a disappointment.

Washington’s List and a Curious Market Reaction

Geopolitical headwinds have added another layer of complexity. The United States recently placed BYD on a roster of companies alleged to have ties to China’s military, alongside Alibaba, Baidu, WuXi AppTec, RoboSense and Unitree. The response in Hong Kong, however, defied expectations: BYD shares actually advanced 1.5 percent there, while other named companies such as WuXi AppTec came under considerably heavier selling pressure.

The designation has not deterred praise from unexpected quarters. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly lauded BYD during an appearance at the Economic Club in Charlotte, describing the company as delivering vehicles priced around USD 35,000 that offer quality comparable to USD 70,000 alternatives.

Regional Markets: Triumphs and Friction

Australia has emerged as a notable bright spot. BYD described August as a “turning point” for electric mobility in the country, where battery-electric new vehicles — 27,078 units sold — outsold both petrol and diesel cars for the first time. BYD’s own Australian sales reached 8,231 vehicles, up 68 percent, though Tesla’s 7,685 units with a 160 percent growth rate tells its own competitive story.

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South Korea presented a different opportunity. Labour strikes at domestic manufacturers Hyundai and Kia cost them nearly 74,500 units in combined domestic sales during August, opening space that BYD exploited with 3,002 vehicles sold. Together with Tesla, BYD captured 45 percent of all imported vehicles in the Korean market.

Elsewhere, the picture grows more complicated. In Pakistan, BYD’s USD 150 million plant in Gharo has fallen behind schedule, with production now not expected to begin until the second half of 2026. Indonesia has forced a temporary halt to complete-vehicle imports after the two-year quota of 100,000 units was nearly exhausted at 92,000 — local manufacturing in Subang is meant to fill the gap.

New Metal in the Showroom

Product momentum continues alongside the geographic expansion. On September 2, BYD launched the Sealion 08, a new flagship SUV for its Ocean lineup priced between 229,900 and 279,900 yuan. Eight variants span fully electric and plug-in hybrid configurations, with a claimed range of up to 900 kilometers under Chinese testing standards and fast-charging capability that takes the battery from 10 to 70 percent in five minutes.

The Chengdu Auto Show saw the third-generation Tang SUV unveiled as the new Dynasty-series flagship, with a market launch slated for the fourth quarter, alongside the Da Han EV, whose all-wheel-drive version sprints from zero to 100 km/h in 3.3 seconds. Premium brand Denza has also scheduled a fully electric version of its N8L SUV for September, a model previously offered only as a plug-in hybrid.

R&D Spending Outpaces Rivals

The company’s commitment to technological leadership is reflected in its research budget: 28.861 billion yuan invested in the first half, a figure that dwarfs competitors such as SAIC. That spending underpins the product cadence and the technical specifications — from charging speeds to acceleration times — that BYD hopes will sustain its export trajectory.

The Valuation Conundrum

For all the operational vigour, the share price tells a more hesitant story. On a monthly basis, the stock has shed 7.3 percent, and it stands 12 percent lower since the start of the year. Investors appear to be weighting the missed earnings expectations more heavily than record sales volumes and export dynamism.

The geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the US designation adds a risk layer whose concrete business impact remains difficult to quantify. Whether the new model wave and sustained overseas growth can shift sentiment may become clearer when the next quarterly results arrive, scheduled for November 4. For now, BYD finds itself in an unusual position: a company whose operational story has rarely looked stronger, yet whose equity valuation seems stubbornly disconnected from that narrative.