TIM’s Final Sprint: Price Hikes and Tender Mechanics Converge as Poste Deadline Approaches

The clock is ticking on multiple fronts for Telecom Italia. As the September 11 cutoff for Poste Italiane’s exchange offer draws near, the operator has quietly executed its tenth prepaid tariff increase of the year — a reminder that the company’s operational machinery keeps turning regardless of the ownership questions hanging over it.

Starting September 3, affected prepaid customers face monthly increases ranging from €1.99 to €2.99. The latest adjustment targets a fresh cohort of subscribers and continues a pattern of unilateral price moves that TIM has pursued since January. Customers unwilling to absorb the higher charges retain a penalty-free exit window until October 2, during which they can port their numbers to competitors — a standard concession under Italian rules governing one-sided contract modifications.

Tender Momentum Builds in Final Stretch

On the acquisition front, the pace of tendered shares has picked up noticeably as the deadline approaches. Figures from Borsa Italiana show 72,055,898 shares had been submitted by September 2, representing 4.2228 percent of the securities covered by the offer. The daily flow has accelerated — 7,886,679 shares arrived on September 2 alone, following 7,110,335 the previous day, lifting the acceptance rate from 3.7606 percent to its current level.

Shareholders still weighing their options face a hard logistical constraint: purchases made on September 10 or 11 will arrive too late for valid tender, since settlement occurs after the offer window closes. The offer itself expires at 5:30 p.m. CET on September 11. Should the minimum threshold not be met under applicable rules, a five-session reopening period from September 21 to 25 has been penciled in as a fallback.

The terms on the table: €1.67 in cash plus 0.218 new Poste shares for each TIM share tendered.

Market Performance Tells a Recovery Story

The stock’s trajectory heading into these final days reflects the broader optimism surrounding the bid. TIM closed Friday at €7.75, down a modest 0.2 percent on the session, but the longer-term picture is far more striking. Shares have gained 51 percent since the start of the year and 77 percent over twelve months. The price sits comfortably above its 200-day moving average of €6.60, though it remains roughly five percent shy of the 52-week high of €8.19.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Telecom Italia?

Market watchers have noted the stock’s strength relative to the wider market, with media reports citing a 6.9 percent gain in August and a 91 percent year-to-date advance — figures that reflect heightened investor interest around the takeover narrative rather than any company-specific announcement.

Operational Turnaround Gathers Pace

The tariff increases are part of a broader earnings recovery that predates the Poste bid. TIM returned to profitability in the second quarter with a profit of €88 million, reversing both the year-ago quarter’s loss and a substantial deficit in the first quarter of this year. Group revenues advanced 2.0 percent, with pricing power in the mass-market segment serving as a key lever for management as it seeks to protect operating margins.

That operational stabilization has been accompanied by balance-sheet restructuring, including share buybacks and capital reduction measures. The strategy appears to be resonating with investors, for whom the broader recovery trajectory likely carries more weight than individual tariff adjustments with limited revenue impact.

Competitive Pressures Persist at Home

The Italian telecom landscape remains fiercely contested. Reuters has reported that rival Iliad posted a 2.2 percent rise in core operating profit for the first half, supported by stronger performance in Italy, where it generated €665 million in revenue over six months. While not directly impacting TIM’s financials, the figures underscore that competitive intensity in the domestic market shows no sign of easing — even as TIM’s shareholder structure undergoes its own transformation.

Beyond the Bid: Strategic Moves Continue

The tender process hasn’t halted progress elsewhere in the organization. TIM’s international arm, Sparkle, has achieved what it describes as the first quantum-secure satellite connection in collaboration with Greece’s Hellas Sat — evidence that the group remains active in infrastructure and security domains irrespective of the takeover’s outcome.

For shareholders, the coming days fuse two distinct narratives: a tender offer entering its decisive phase and an operator executing its commercial strategy with undiminished focus. Whether the recent acceleration in tendered shares marks the beginning of a flood or merely a trickle ahead of a last-minute surge will become clear once the September 11 deadline passes.