Commerzbank’s Stalemate with UniCredit Deepens as Jefferies Takes 10.43% Stake and Payout Promise Bolsters Stock

The power struggle over Commerzbank entered a new phase this week as the US investment bank Jefferies disclosed a 10.43% economic interest in the German lender, while UniCredit’s shadow voting grip crept closer to outright control. Jefferies’ position, flagged in a regulatory filing on July 14 with a July 10 reference date, includes direct voting rights of roughly 3% and derivative instruments making up the rest — a bet that underscores the speculative allure of Germany’s most contested banking stock.

UniCredit now controls an economic interest of around 47.5% in Commerzbank, according to media reports. Because Commerzbank holds a block of its own shares that carry no voting rights, the Italian lender’s effective voting power stands at approximately 49.65%. That leaves the Milan-based giant just a whisker away from formal majority control, even though its exchange offer to minority shareholders — which expired on July 3 — drew less than 2% participation.

Commerzbank’s management has responded by sharpening its independence pitch. The board lifted its 2026 profit target to at least €3.4 billion and signaled that almost all net income between 2026 and 2028 will be returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. The message is blunt: the bank can deliver full value on its own, without a takeover. The stock market has taken note — the lender’s market capitalization has swelled to €42.37 billion.

The shares traded at €38.19 on Wednesday, a 1.57% pullback from Tuesday’s close of €38.80 that had come within a hair’s breadth of the 52-week high of €39.18. Over the past 12 months the stock has gained 35.67% from its year low of €28.08, and it sits 10.65% above its 200-day moving average of €34.51. Technical indicators remain benign: the relative strength index stands at 55.4, well below the overbought threshold, while the 50-day line at €37.06 provides a near-term support floor.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?

The bull case rests on the credibility of the €3.4 billion profit target and the generous payout policy. RBC analyst Anke Reingen reaffirmed an “Outperform” rating and a €43.00 price target, arguing that the bank’s upcoming second-quarter report on August 6 will likely confirm its full-year guidance and the “Momentum 2030” strategy. A failure to defend the €37.06 support, however, could accelerate selling toward the 100-day average at €35.17, especially if other institutional investors follow Jefferies — which has already trimmed its position to 10.43% — and reduce their stakes.

Away from the takeover drama, the bank secured a tactical reprieve in a court case concerning a failed Russian gas project. On July 14, the Frankfurt regional court began hearing a claim by Commerzbank and several other lenders for €1.11 billion in guarantee payments from industrial gas group Linde. Commerzbank’s own exposure is €93.5 million. The court indicated it does not see the banks as automatically liable for sanctions-related losses and postponed its decision to October 20, removing a near-term overhang.

The next clear catalyst is August 6, when Commerzbank publishes its second-quarter numbers. Investors will be looking for not only hard financials but also concrete progress on the “Momentum 2030” plan and any fresh commentary on how the board intends to deal with UniCredit’s creeping influence. If the earnings confirm the €3.4 billion trajectory, the stalemate with the Italians may linger for months — but the shares are pricing in a resolution that keeps the bank independent.