D-Wave Quantum’s $32.8 Million Order Haul Sets Up a High-Stakes Earnings Reckoning

When D-Wave Quantum reports its first-quarter results on May 12, the headline numbers are likely to disappoint. Analysts expect revenue to slump to around $5 million, with the per-share loss widening to eight cents. But the company’s management has already telegraphed that the top-line weakness is a mirage — a product of multi-quarter revenue recognition cycles on quantum computer sales, not a reflection of flagging demand.

The real story lies in the order book. D-Wave booked $32.8 million in new contracts during the first quarter alone — nearly $8 million more than its entire 2025 revenue. That figure includes a $20 million deal with Florida Atlantic University for an Advantage2 system, a signed contract rather than a letter of intent. The backlog swelled 471 percent in 2025, and the pace has only accelerated since.

Yet the stock has struggled to hold its gains. Shares closed at roughly $20, more than triple their level a year ago, but the ride has been anything but smooth. On April 21, the stock fell 5.1 percent in what traders attributed to profit-taking after a 52 percent April rally fueled by Nvidia’s public endorsement of quantum technologies. A separate structural overhang compounds the pressure: D-Wave registered over 10 million shares for resale in connection with its acquisition of Quantum Circuits Inc., creating a persistent supply overhang. Short interest sits in the mid-to-high double-digit percentage range, amplifying daily swings.

The broader market backdrop has not helped. In March, D-Wave shares plunged 23.2 percent — far worse than the S&P 500’s 5.1 percent decline — as geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict triggered a broad risk-off move. The selloff had nothing to do with D-Wave’s fundamentals, but it underscored how vulnerable high-beta names remain to macro shocks.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying D-Wave Quantum?

Financially, the company is well-positioned for the long haul. It ended 2025 with over $884 million in cash — the highest in its history — following a series of capital raises. That war chest funds an aggressive dual-technology strategy: D-Wave is now the only quantum firm developing both annealing and gate-model systems, a distinction that came via the $550 million Quantum Circuits acquisition. The acquired unit is testing an eight-qubit machine with early users and plans to launch a 17-qubit version later this year.

The integration risk is real. Absorbing a billion-dollar acquisition while simultaneously building a revenue-less business line demands significant management bandwidth, and D-Wave burns through over $70 million annually on an EBITDA basis. External supply-chain pressures add another layer of complexity: rival IonQ recently acquired SkyWater Technology, a key chip fabrication supplier for D-Wave, creating potential dependencies in hardware production.

On the upside, D-Wave is carving out a niche in defense and hybrid computing. It is working with Anduril and Davidson on quantum-classical applications for U.S. missile defense, where a proof-of-concept demonstrated nearly tenfold faster solution times compared to classical methods alone. CEO Alan Baratz also highlights the energy advantage — a D-Wave system consumes roughly 10 kilowatts, while GPU clusters require an entire data center.

The pivotal question is whether the booking surge will translate into recognized revenue. Management has signaled a sharp acceleration in the second half of 2026. If D-Wave can report a quarter with $15 million or more in revenue, the narrative shifts from “promising but unproven” to “scaling business model.” The May 12 print — and the accompanying commentary on bookings momentum — will determine whether the market focuses on the near-term accounting noise or the longer-term commercial trajectory.