D-Wave’s Advantage2 Usage Surges 314% as New Simulator and $100 Million CHIPS Grant Draw Closer

Two powerful catalysts are converging at D-Wave Quantum. The company is rolling out a novel error-revealing simulator in September, while a preliminary agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce could funnel up to $100 million into its superconducting-qubit manufacturing. The combination has investors betting that the quantum computing pioneer is on the cusp of commercial scale.

The new simulator, built on D-Wave’s proprietary dual-rail technology, takes an unconventional approach to development. Most existing tools mask internal noise, forcing developers to guess how applications will behave on real hardware. D-Wave’s version will expose those computational errors directly, enabling the design of software that adapts dynamically to the processor’s actual quirks. The tool launches in September and is designed to bridge the gap between the company’s current annealing systems and its next-generation machines.

The government backing comes from the CHIPS and Science Act. D-Wave signed a non-binding letter of intent for up to $100 million in funding, with Washington receiving common shares of equal value in return. The capital would be directed toward research centers in Florida, Connecticut, and British Columbia, supporting the company’s ambition to leap from today’s systems to a machine with 100,000 qubits.

That isn’t just a distant promise. The commercial side of the business is already accelerating. D-Wave reported that usage of its Advantage2 systems surged 314% in the past fiscal year, delivering a steady revenue stream. And the company’s cash position has strengthened considerably: after integrating Quantum Circuits, D-Wave held roughly $884 million in liquidity, up from $588 million before the deal.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying D-Wave Quantum?

Wall Street is taking notice. Mizuho Securities raised its price target from $29 to $35 after attending D-Wave’s recent analyst day, maintaining an “Outperform” rating. The investment bank highlighted the company’s detailed technology roadmap, which plots a path to 100 logical qubits by 2032 — a milestone Mizuho sees as the point where D-Wave exits pure research and enters industrial deployment. Separately, the research firm Simply Wall St pegs the stock’s fair value at roughly $40, implying further upside.

The market has responded in kind. D-Wave’s shares closed at $26.29 on Monday, a gain of 12.5% on the session. In European trading, the stock ended the prior Thursday at €21.56, having nearly doubled from its spring low. Over the past month alone, the equity has climbed about 30%.

For the near term, D-Wave plans to deliver a system with 17 physical qubits later this year, with the September simulator launch serving as a critical foundation. The analyst votes are bullish, but with trading volumes elevated and the company sitting on a war chest of nearly $900 million, the path toward those targets appears increasingly tangible.