German Antitrust Watchdog Raises Concerns Over RWE’s Market Dominance

Germany’s Federal Cartel Office has identified energy giant RWE as holding a dominant position in the national electricity market, a classification that carries significant regulatory implications. This development coincides with the company’s strategic positioning regarding upcoming solar subsidy reforms and the continued execution of its substantial share buyback initiative.

Financial Performance and Revised Investment Outlook

RWE reported a robust financial performance for 2024, with adjusted EBITDA reaching €5.7 billion, surpassing market forecasts. Its adjusted net income stood at €2.3 billion. The company now generates over 40% of its power from renewable sources, a direct result of net investments totaling €10 billion in this sector.

However, the group has revised its capital expenditure plans. For the period spanning 2025 to 2030, RWE now anticipates investments of approximately €35 billion, which is €10 billion less than its initial projections. The full annual report for 2025, scheduled for release on March 12, is expected to provide detailed insights into this adjusted strategic direction.

Cartel Office Findings on Pivotal Hours

The core of the antitrust authority’s concern is detailed in its sixth market power report. The analysis reveals that RWE’s role exceeded the critical 5% threshold for pivotal hours—periods when its power plants were indispensable for meeting German electricity demand. During these times, which accounted for between 4.3% and 11.1% of the year’s total hours, the company’s generation capacity was essential. This represents a notable increase compared to the previous reporting period.

Andreas Mundt, President of the Cartel Office, attributed this growing influence to structural shifts in the energy landscape. The phased exit from coal and nuclear power is increasing the importance of remaining conventional power plants. The report also highlighted that in nearly a quarter of all hours, domestic demand could only be satisfied through electricity imports. A key regulatory consequence of being deemed dominant is that RWE is prohibited from withholding generation capacity to influence market prices.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rwe?

Strategic Moves in Solar Policy and Market Structure

Amidst these regulatory findings, RWE is actively shaping its strategy around the planned reform of solar subsidies. While smaller rooftop photovoltaic systems on homes are expected to operate without state support in the future, the proposed changes could benefit large-scale operators. RWE is advocating for privileges for major power plants, strategically positioning itself within Germany’s ongoing energy transition.

The Cartel Office also expressed skepticism regarding a potential split of the German-Luxembourg electricity bidding zone, warning that such a move could further consolidate the market power of large incumbent suppliers like RWE.

Share Buybacks and Institutional Investor Activity

On the corporate finance front, RWE’s €1.5 billion share repurchase program is progressing as scheduled. In just one recent five-day period from February 16 to 20, the company acquired more than 405,000 of its own shares. Since the commencement of the program’s third tranche in early December 2025, the total volume has reached 4.5 million securities.

Concurrently, there has been significant activity from major investors. Global asset management firm BlackRock increased its stake, raising its voting rights share from 5.11% to 5.37% as of February 19. In a related development, Barclays analyst Peter Crampton reaffirmed an “Overweight” rating on RWE shares, citing underestimated growth potential and maintaining a price target of €60.