More than two in five employees do not believe they can remain in their jobs until they reach retirement age, according to a new survey by the German Trade Union Federation (DGB). The finding lands as the coalition government pushes through a controversial labour reform package—one that critics say targets short-term absence while ignoring the structural strains driving longer-term sick leave.
The DGB’s “Index Gute Arbeit” draws on around 28,000 responses and paints a stark picture. In physically demanding fields, the outlook is especially bleak: 72 percent of workers in sanitation, heating and air-conditioning technology doubt they can last until pension age, followed by 71 percent in nursing and 66 percent in building construction. DGB chairwoman Yasmin Fahimi called the result a “bitter finding” and argued for better working conditions rather than raising the retirement age.
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But data from the German Economic Institute (IW) from 2023 suggests that about a quarter of early retirees with 45 years of contributions continue working after the earnings cap was removed, complicating the narrative that people are forced out of the workforce.
Reform Package Targets Sick Leave, Contract Flexibility
The coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) agreed in early July on sweeping changes to labour law aimed at reducing what it sees as excessively high sick-leave rates. The centerpiece: scrapping the option for a telephone sick note and requiring a doctor’s certificate from the first day of illness. Chancellor Friedrich Merz stressed that employees would not have to visit a doctor on day one—but the certificate must be available from that point.
The package also introduces major flexibility for employers. Fixed-term contracts without a specific reason will be allowed for up to four years, with as many as six renewals. For high earners—those with annual salaries of roughly €177,450 or more—dismissal protection will be loosened. Meanwhile, the flat tax on mini-jobs (marginal employment) rises from two to five percent.
Medical and Economic Criticism
The plans have triggered a sharp response from physicians. The German Association of General Practitioners (Hausärzteverband) estimates the new rule could generate up to 30 million additional doctor visits per year, calling it symbolic politics. Data from health insurers AOK and Barmer shows that between 2020 and 2023, phone sick notes accounted for only 0.8 to 1.2 percent of all cases—making it unlikely that they drove the rise in overall sick leave.
Economists at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) warn that crowded waiting rooms may actually increase the risk of infection. Analysis from 2024 reveals that about 40 percent of sick days stem from long-term illnesses lasting more than six weeks—a category untouched by the new rule. Experts attribute the increase from an average of 18 sick days per worker in 2016 to 22 in 2024 mainly to the introduction of the electronic sick note (eAU), which allows for more comprehensive recording.
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Political Unease and Public Backlash
Within the SPD itself, the reforms are being played down. Secretary-General Kevin Klüssendorf described the party’s approval as the “lesser evil,” necessary to prevent more severe cuts such as unpaid waiting days. Health experts in the party are demanding a scientific basis for the measures before they take effect.
Public opinion appears firmly against the changes. A YouGov poll found that nearly 60 percent of respondents oppose both the abolition of the phone sick note and the new requirement for a day-one doctor’s certificate. The result underscores the political risk for a coalition that touted the package as a cure for Germany’s rising sickness absence—but may find that the diagnosis itself is disputed.
