ITM Power’s funding win has not yet answered the market’s bigger question

ITM Power now has a sizeable financial cushion for its next manufacturing step, but investors are still asking for something more tangible: proof that the company can turn support into scale. The British government is sending the electrolyser maker 46.5 million pounds, and Great British Energy is adding another 40 million pounds in equity. Even so, the shares remain under pressure.

On Thursday, the stock closed at 1.23 euros, down 9.08 percent over seven days and 14.98 percent over the past month. In the latest session mentioned in the second source, it fell 7.84 percent to 1.24 euros. The share price still sits more than 90 percent above its 52-week low of 0.6480 euros, but the recent drift shows that the funding headline alone has not changed the mood.

The immediate focus is now on execution. ITM wants the Chronos production line in Sheffield to become a genuine step-up in capacity, with the company saying the new site will build on processes developed for the Trident line. Once operational, the plant is expected to deliver up to 1 gigawatt of annual output through automation and cleanroom manufacturing. The government money, announced on 9 July, is meant to help finance that next stage.

There is also a stronger operational backdrop than the share price suggests. In the first half of financial year 2026, ITM posted record revenue of 18 million pounds, driven by plant sales. The gross loss improved sharply, narrowing from 10.2 million pounds a year earlier to 6.5 million pounds. The company also reported an order book of 152 million pounds.

Still, the path to a full rerating depends on projects that are not yet locked in. ITM is working with Protium on a first 15-megawatt electrolyser facility in Cromarty in the Scottish Highlands, with a final investment decision expected in December 2026. Separately, it is progressing two energy infrastructure projects with Germany’s Stablegrid Group that together involve 710 megawatts of electrolyser capacity, and the first decision there is expected later this year. Those milestones matter because they would convert pipeline into committed business.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?

That is also why the market remains cautious. Berenberg has raised its price target, and Morgan Stanley has upgraded the rating, but the company still has to prove it can scale efficiently. The current setup leaves plenty of moving parts: the Sheffield build-out, the two pending investment decisions, and the challenge of translating public support into repeatable earnings power.

The numbers, however, still point to a company not yet through the woods. ITM expects an EBITDA loss of 27 to 29 million pounds for financial year 2026, even after the stronger revenue outlook. Older, lower-margin contracts still need to be worked through, which will continue to weigh on profitability. The market is therefore being asked to look past the current loss profile and focus on what the next manufacturing phase can deliver.

Technically, the chart is mixed rather than broken. The shares trade above the 200-day average of 1.08 euros, while the 50-day average stands at 1.67 euros, leaving the stock 26.18 percent below that shorter-term benchmark. An RSI of 37.2 suggests selling pressure may be easing, and an annualised 30-day volatility of more than 100 percent shows just how sharply sentiment can swing. The stock’s recent path, in other words, still reflects uncertainty rather than a settled verdict.

The big question now is simple. If the Sheffield line comes online without major delays and at least one of the pending decisions — Cromarty or Stablegrid — lands on schedule, ITM could still move back toward the upper end of current analyst ranges. If not, the shares are more likely to drift toward the 100-day average of 1.35 euros or lower. For investors, the next checkpoints are clear: the Stablegrid decision expected this year and the Cromarty call due in December 2026.