Micron’s HBM Revenue Could Hit $100 Billion by 2028 — But the Stock’s Biggest Test Comes This Month

Micron Technology’s share price has been on a tear, closing at 424 euros on Friday to set a fresh record high. The memory-chip maker has surged roughly 524 percent over the past twelve months, and 398 percent in the last year alone, as investors pile into the AI-driven semiconductor trade. Yet beneath the euphoria lies a critical question: how much of the boom is already priced in?

The rally has been fueled by a potent mix of factors. Strong quarterly results from Intel last week lifted the entire chip sector, while ASML raised its 2026 revenue forecast and warned of persistent shortages in the memory market. Micron itself delivered a standout performance in its fiscal second quarter of 2026, with revenue jumping 196 percent to $23.86 billion. The cloud segment alone contributed $7.75 billion. For the current third quarter, management is targeting $33.5 billion in sales — a 260 percent increase year-over-year.

The engine behind this explosive growth is high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the specialized chips that power AI accelerators. Micron’s entire HBM production capacity for calendar 2026 is already spoken for through binding contracts, and the order book extends into 2027. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has confirmed that this year’s output is completely sold out. The company supplies memory modules for Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell GPUs, and is also the key provider for Nvidia’s upcoming Vera-Rubin platform.

The market for HBM is expanding at a breathtaking pace. Analysts estimate the segment was worth roughly $35 billion in 2025, and project it will nearly triple to around $100 billion by 2028. SK-Hynix Chairman Chey Tae-won has warned that the shortage could persist until the end of the decade. Even new compression algorithms like Google’s TurboQuant are expected to only ease, not eliminate, the supply crunch.

Micron’s technological edge gives it a strong position. Its current HBM3E generation offers 36 gigabytes of capacity and consumes up to 30 percent less power than competing products. The next-generation HBM4, designed for Nvidia’s Vera-Rubin GPUs, is slated to deliver over 2.8 terabytes per second of bandwidth and improve energy efficiency by more than 20 percent compared to HBM3E.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Micron?

The stock’s valuation has become a hot topic on Wall Street. At roughly $540 billion in market capitalization, Micron trades at a net profit margin of 41.5 percent. Its PEG ratio stands at just 0.46, according to Morningstar, a level that typically signals undervaluation. Some analysts project earnings per share above $100 for fiscal 2027, which would push the price-to-earnings ratio below five — unusually low for a growth stock.

Institutional investors are taking notice. WT Asset Management recently added over 900,000 Micron shares, making the stock its second-largest portfolio holding. The share price now sits about 85 percent above its 200-day moving average, and has gained nearly 58 percent since the start of the year. Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish: roughly 92 percent of experts rate the stock a buy, with a median 12-month price target of $550.

Yet the memory industry’s notorious cyclicality remains a persistent risk. Current chip prices are inflated by an extreme supply-demand imbalance. As Micron and its rivals bring new HBM capacity online in the coming years, prices are expected to normalize. A sudden glut could compress margins and reverse the stock’s trajectory.

Geopolitical headwinds also linger. Micron is still barred from supplying certain critical infrastructure sectors in China, limiting its access to the world’s largest semiconductor market.

The next major catalyst arrives later this month. Micron’s fiscal third quarter ends in late May, and the earnings report is expected between June 24 and 29. If the results match the strength of the prior quarter and management reaffirms its margin guidance, the stock could have enough fundamental support to justify its elevated valuation and extend its rally. If not, the market may quickly reassess whether the AI memory supercycle is already fully reflected in the price.