Nebius Bets on Kilowatts and Code to Outrun AI’s Infrastructure Bottleneck

The conversation around artificial intelligence has shifted from “is the demand real?” to “is there enough power to sustain it?” For Nebius, the answer has become a two-pronged strategy: lock down local energy sources and snap up the software layer that makes AI models run efficiently. The company’s vertical integration thesis is now taking concrete shape, with the stock closing Friday at €245.20 — a year-to-date surge of roughly 220% and a stunning 484% over the past twelve months.

Fuel Cells Over Grid Dependency

Utility grid connections can take years, but Nebius cannot afford to wait. A partnership with Bloom Energy, announced in May, will deploy solid-oxide fuel cells across its data centers, starting with 328 megawatts of capacity. These modular units can be installed rapidly, bypassing the need for new transmission lines and eliminating the gas turbines previously planned. The service agreement alone could generate up to $2.6 billion in revenue over its lifetime.

The logic is straightforward: Nebius has raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget to between $20 billion and $25 billion. Waiting for grid permits at that scale would stall years of revenue. Fuel cells cut the time from groundbreaking to first dollar.

Buying Into the Agentic Era

Power is one bottleneck; software depth is another. Inference — getting trained models to work in real-time — now accounts for roughly two-thirds of AI compute demand. To capture that market, Nebius completed the acquisition of Eigen AI in June for $643 million. The startup optimizes models across their entire lifecycle, and the deal gives Nebius its first engineering foothold in Silicon Valley.

The acquisition follows the purchase of Tavily earlier, with the goal of building a unified platform for autonomous agents. Analysts project the agentic AI market could reach $200 billion by the early 2030s. Nebius is not only stacking server racks; it is assembling the software tools to command a share of that opportunity.

Revenue Explosion Meets Heavy Spending

The growth story is already showing up in the numbers. In the first quarter, revenue surged 684% year-on-year to $399 million. Adjusted operating margin in the AI segment hit 45%. Yet stripping out one-time gains — especially the revaluation of its ClickHouse stake — Nebius recorded an adjusted net loss of roughly $100 million, a cost of scaling fast. The company sits on $9.3 billion in cash and equivalents, giving it ample runway.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?

Management expects recurring revenue to reach as much as $9 billion by the end of 2026, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance stands at up to $3.4 billion. Capital spending, meanwhile, may hit $25 billion.

A Nasdaq-100 Debut and Passive Buying Pressure

Monday marks a historic milestone: Nebius joins the Nasdaq-100. Over 200 financial products track the index, collectively managing more than $800 billion in assets. Passive funds are forced buyers, creating real, mechanical demand for the stock. The technical picture already reflects the momentum — the share price trades 41% above its 50-day moving average, while its 52-week low of €38.00 now seems almost unbelievable.

From Anchors to Execution

The foundation of Nebius’s model rests on long-term anchor contracts. Meta Platforms reserved capacity worth up to $27 billion, with initial deliveries starting in early 2027. Microsoft signed a multi-year deal valued in the billions. Nvidia itself injected $2 billion directly into the company, and the two are jointly developing new AI factories.

Globally, Nebius plans to operate 16 data centers by year-end, including a $2.3 billion buildout in the UK and major sites in Pennsylvania and Missouri. Unlike resellers, Nebius owns its buildings, hardware, and power contracts — a structure that cuts out middlemen but demands flawless execution across three variables: capital efficiency, energy supply, and customer demand.

The first Bloom fuel cell project goes live this year. Whether that milestone validates the entire vertical integration bet will determine if the stock’s breathtaking rally is built on more than index euphoria.