OHB’s Two-Faced Half-Year: Record Orders Mask a Profit Squeeze That Spooked the Market

The arithmetic at OHB SE is getting harder to reconcile. On Wednesday, the Bremen-based space and defence group posted first-half numbers that showed double-digit growth across its headline operational metrics — and simultaneously revealed a second quarter that slid deep into the red. The market’s verdict came swiftly: the shares shed 7.60 percent to close at 237.00 euros, a pullback that trimmed the stock’s year-to-date gain to a still-striking 102.56 percent.

The sell-off crystallises a dilemma that has been building for months. OHB’s order book is at a record, its balance sheet has been transformed by a hefty capital raise, and the European security environment continues to funnel billions toward space and defence. Yet the company’s profit trajectory is heading in the opposite direction, and analysts are split on how much of the long-term story is already priced into the shares.

Growth on Paper, Losses in Practice

The headline figures for the first six months of 2026 tell a story of momentum. Total output rose 11 percent to 627.9 million euros, while revenue climbed 12 percent to 600.1 million euros. Adjusted EBITDA advanced 31 percent to 60.4 million euros, and adjusted EBIT jumped 46 percent to 38.9 million euros. The order backlog swelled to 3.304 billion euros from 3.067 billion euros a year earlier.

The second quarter, however, tells a different tale. Group EBIT came in at minus 5.923 million euros, against a positive 11.617 million euros in the same period last year — a swing of roughly 55 percent. The period result fell 58 percent to minus 5.112 million euros, translating to a loss per share of 0.27 euros versus a profit of 0.37 euros a year earlier. For the full half, net income dropped to 4.8 million euros from 11.5 million euros, with earnings per share sliding to 0.25 euros from 0.57 euros.

That divergence — growth at the operational level, deterioration at the bottom line — is what unsettled investors. The market has grown accustomed to rewarding OHB for its strategic positioning, but the quarterly loss served as a reminder that execution risk remains very real.

A Balance Sheet Rebuilt in One Quarter

The counterweight to the profit squeeze is the state of the company’s finances. The capital increase completed in July, which generated gross proceeds of roughly 484 million euros, has fundamentally reshaped OHB’s balance sheet. Equity climbed from 431.4 million euros to 915.6 million euros, lifting the equity ratio from 27.5 percent to 43.3 percent. Cash and financial assets stood at 526.9 million euros at the end of June, compared with just 52.8 million euros a year earlier.

This gives OHB substantial firepower for its growth agenda, even if it came at the cost of dilution. Management reaffirmed its full-year guidance of total output around 1.4 billion euros and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 10.5 and 11.0 percent. The medium-term targets remain unchanged: total output above 4.0 billion euros and an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 13 percent.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying OHB SE?

Analysts Stake Out Their Ground

The divergence in opinion among the banks that initiated coverage on Wednesday is telling. Goldman Sachs opened with a “Neutral” rating and a price target of 250 euros, arguing that much of OHB’s long-term growth opportunity is already reflected in the share price following its dramatic run-up. Jefferies, meanwhile, pointed to concrete operational hazards: fixed-price contract execution, reliance on government funding, and — most notably — a 70 percent probability of failure assigned to the first launch of Rocket Factory Augsburg’s RFA-ONE Block 1 rocket. Despite that caution, Jefferies’ earnings estimates are ambitious, projecting 3.84 euros per share for 2026 and 7.64 euros for 2028.

At the bullish end sits Berenberg’s Michael Filatov, who framed OHB as Europe’s representative of a “space supercycle” and set a price target of 358 euros, citing the record backlog as a guarantee of exceptional visibility. The target range across the new coverage — 250 to 358 euros — underscores just how wide the disagreement is over the right valuation.

Structural Tailwinds, Operational Headaches

The macro backdrop for OHB’s core markets remains favourable. Jefferies highlighted a 32 percent increase in ESA’s budget planning for 2026 to 2028, roughly 50 billion euros earmarked for space within the EU’s 2028–2034 financial framework, and Germany’s planned defence spending expansion. Goldman Sachs identified an opportunity pipeline of around 20 billion euros on top of the record backlog.

Operationally, the company has been busy. OHB Italia received an order from the Italian space agency ASI on 30 July for the PRISMA Second Generation Earth observation mission, with Thales Alenia Space Italia and Leonardo lined up as subcontractors. The company also announced new partnerships: a joint effort with Rheinmetall on a protected communications architecture for Europe, and the KIRK joint venture with Helsing, alongside Hensoldt and Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, to develop a space-based reconnaissance and target acquisition system.

Political winds are blowing in OHB’s direction as well. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said on 24 July that a Bundeswehr-owned launch site is under consideration, a statement welcomed by OHB and the European Spaceport Company. Managing director Sabine von der Recke cited “very intensive preparations” for giving Germany its own sovereign launch capability, while CEO Marco Fuchs noted that work on the offshore spaceport concept continues, with interest having expanded well beyond the original North Sea focus.

The Reckoning Ahead

The shares remain 65.55 percent below their 52-week high of 688.00 euros, reached in May — a reminder of how far the stock has corrected even after Wednesday’s drop. For investors, the question is whether the current price already discounts the risks that Jefferies flagged and the profit pressure visible in the second quarter, or whether the supercycle thesis that Berenberg champions will eventually win out.

The next test comes on 12 November, when OHB reports its third-quarter results. By then, the market will have had time to digest whether the operational momentum can translate into actual profitability — and whether the record order book can finally start converting into the earnings growth that the share price once promised.