Palantir’s Insider Buying Spree Meets Activist Heat Ahead of Earnings

The data-analytics giant finds itself caught between two powerful forces this week. On one side, CEO Alexander Karp has been quietly accumulating shares at a pace rarely seen in growth stocks. On the other, a growing chorus of activists is demanding that one of Palantir’s largest institutional holders exit the stock entirely.

The clash sets the stage for what could be a defining moment when Palantir reports first-quarter results on Monday, May 4.

Karp’s $170 Million Bet

Between late January and April, Karp snapped up roughly 1.47 million Palantir shares. At current prices, that haul is worth around $170 million, making it one of the most aggressive insider buying campaigns in the software sector this year. The purchases signal a level of conviction that stands in stark contrast to the stock’s recent trajectory.

Palantir shares closed Friday at €121.86, up a modest 0.36% on thin volume — a brief reprieve from the broader selloff that has punished software names. The stock now sits roughly 15% lower than where it started 2026 and a full 32% below its 52-week high of €179.86. The 50-day moving average at €123.35 looms as immediate resistance, while the 200-day line remains far overhead.

The relative strength index hovers near 48, a neutral reading that offers no clear directional clue.

Swiss Pressure Intensifies

While Karp loads up, the Swiss National Bank is facing demands to do the opposite. Activists from Minneapolis appeared at the SNB’s shareholder meeting in Bern, calling on the central bank to divest its Palantir stake on ethical grounds. Their objection centers on Palantir’s work with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, particularly surveillance systems they argue threaten civil liberties.

The SNB holds roughly 6.24 million Palantir shares worth about $1.1 billion. President Martin Schlegel defended the position, arguing the bank weights holdings by market capitalization to maintain broad diversification. He declined to comment on individual names. The pressure has already produced one scalp: Nordic financial firm Storebrand has sold its Palantir stake over similar ethical concerns.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Palantir?

The Real Story Is in the Numbers

For all the noise around governance, the week’s main event remains the earnings report. Wall Street expects earnings per share of $0.28 on revenue of $1.54 billion — a 74% year-over-year surge. That would mark the fifth consecutive quarter of accelerating growth, following increases of 70%, 63%, 48% and 39% in the prior four periods.

The Pentagon’s latest budget request includes $2.3 billion for Palantir’s Maven Smart System, giving the company multi-year visibility into its government pipeline. Analyst John McPeake of Rosenblatt Securities reiterated his buy rating and $200 price target on Friday, forecasting 58% growth in government revenue this year. He pointed to the company’s ability to convert pilot projects into large-scale contracts through its AIP data platform.

Louie DiPalma of William Blair sees Palantir as well-positioned, while Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson maintains a hold rating — not because of fundamental concerns, but due to valuation. At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 108, the stock leaves little room for error.

What to Watch

The stock’s slide has structural roots. Capital rotated out of software and into semiconductors at the start of the year. Then unexpectedly strong inflation data in April added pressure, as higher rates disproportionately punish richly valued growth names.

The key question for investors is whether management raises its full-year guidance. Palantir has already laid out a 2026 revenue target between $7.18 billion and $7.20 billion — more than $1 billion above the prior consensus. A further upward revision, combined with evidence of accelerating AI-related revenue, could quickly shift sentiment.

Palantir filed its proxy materials with the SEC on Friday, setting the stage for the upcoming annual meeting. Between the activist campaign, the insider buying and the earnings report, the next few days will test whether the company’s internal conviction can outweigh the external headwinds.