Plug Power enters a pivotal week with its stock clinging to gains that have reshaped the narrative around the hydrogen company. Shares closed at €2.67 on Friday, a modest 0.78% dip, but the 12-month picture tells a different story: a staggering 257% rally from a 52-week low of €0.63. The stock now trades 38% above its 200-day moving average and roughly 24% below its 52-week high of €3.51.
The catalyst for this surge was a fourth-quarter earnings report that stunned the market. Plug Power delivered adjusted EPS of minus $0.06, beating consensus estimates, while revenue hit $225 million — also ahead of expectations. The real headline, however, was a dramatic improvement in gross margin. The metric swung from minus 123% a year earlier to positive 2% in Q4 2025, a turnaround driven by deep cost cuts under the internal restructuring program dubbed “Project Quantum Leap.”
That operational overhaul is now being tested by a new leadership team. CEO Jose Luis Crespo, who took the helm in March 2026, has laid out an ambitious roadmap: positive EBITDAS by end of 2026, positive operating income by end of 2027, and full profitability by end of 2028. In an unusual bid to build investor trust, Crespo fielded questions on Reddit’s “Ask Me Anything” forum on April 16 — a direct, if unconventional, move for a CEO of a publicly traded company.
The Numbers That Matter on May 11
When Plug Power reports first-quarter results on May 11, all eyes will be on whether the Q4 momentum has carried through. Analysts expect a loss of $0.10 per share, which would represent a 52% improvement from the year-ago period. Revenue is forecast to come in at roughly $141 million, according to Zacks, though the company’s own trajectory suggests a higher figure may be achievable given the Q4 beat.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Plug Power?
For the full year, Zacks projects revenue of around $799 million and a loss per share of $0.32 — numbers that underscore the consolidation phase the company is navigating. The consensus analyst rating remains “Hold,” with price targets clustering in the $2.71 to $3.00 range, implying limited upside from current levels.
A Backlog That Buys Time
The order book provides some cushion. In early April, Plug Power secured a contract to supply a 275 MW electrolyzer for the Hy2gen “Courant” project in Quebec, adding to a record $188 million in electrolyzer revenue for full-year 2025. Industry tailwinds are also building: new fuel-cell trucks for long-haul transport debuted at Toronto’s Truck World 2026, and Japan launched commercial hydrogen engines this month. Both developments strengthen the long-term demand case for Plug Power’s logistics and heavy-duty applications.
The Cash Conundrum
Liquidity remains the most pressing concern. The company plans to sell $275 million in assets during the first half of 2026 to fund operations and reduce cash burn. Failure to execute these sales would put Crespo’s entire profitability roadmap at risk. The gross margin turnaround is encouraging, but the company must demonstrate that cost savings are sufficient to sustain operations without additional capital raises.
The market’s verdict on May 11 will hinge on whether Crespo can convince investors that the operational improvements are durable and that the cash position is stabilizing. With the stock already pricing in significant optimism, the margin for error is thin.
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