Silver’s $75 Test: A Market Caught Between a Geopolitical Storm and a Fed Farewell

Silver is walking a tightrope. The precious metal closed the week at roughly $75 per ounce, nursing a near-7% weekly loss, as a geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and a looming Federal Reserve decision collide. While the metal has shed roughly a percent from the previous day to trade at $74.82, the damage over the past five sessions has been severe, marking one of its sharpest weekly declines in months.

The Hormuz Effect: Oil’s Surge Crushes Silver’s Safe-Haven Appeal

The catalyst for the selloff is unmistakable. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blockaded as tensions between the US and Iran escalate. Peace talks have stalled, and President Donald Trump has added fuel to the fire, ordering the US Navy to fire on hostile mine-layers while US forces boarded an Iranian supertanker in the Indian Ocean. The result has been a spike in energy costs, with a barrel of oil stabilizing near $93.

This has created a perverse dynamic for silver. Instead of acting as a safe haven, the metal is trading like a risk asset. Surging energy prices are fanning fears of stubborn inflation, which in turn fuels expectations that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer. Since silver offers no yield, a high-rate environment erodes its appeal. A strengthening US dollar and rising bond yields are compounding the pressure.

The Fed’s Final Act Under Powell

All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve. The FOMC meets on April 28-29, and markets are pricing in a near-certainty that rates will be held steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. But the real drama lies in the subtext. This will be Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed chair, and his commentary on the rate path for the remainder of the year will be scrutinized with unusual intensity.

The macro calendar remains dense. On April 30, the US will release its annualized Q1 2026 GDP growth, the core PCE deflator for March, and the Eurozone’s first-quarter GDP figures. The IMF is currently forecasting US growth of 2.3% for 2026, while global GDP is expected to expand by 3.1% — down from a January projection of 3.3%.

Inflation’s Double Whammy

The inflation picture is already darkening. The US Consumer Price Index for March rose 3.3% year-over-year, the highest reading since 2024. With the Strait of Hormuz blockade keeping oil prices elevated, the pressure is unlikely to ease soon. In an adverse scenario of further escalation, analysts warn that global growth could slip to 2.5% while inflation surges to 5.4%.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?

For silver, this is a double blow. Not only does higher inflation typically invite tighter monetary policy, but the metal’s industrial demand is also vulnerable to an economic slowdown.

Chart Damage and Key Levels

The technical picture has deteriorated. Silver has fallen below its psychologically important 38-day moving average, though it remains comfortably above its 200-day average, keeping the long-term uptrend intact. The metal is now testing support at $75. If it breaks decisively below this level, analysts see a rapid correction toward $72.

The volatility has been extreme. After hitting record highs earlier this year, the price briefly crashed to $61 during the worst of the recent fighting. The current stabilization around $75 suggests the market is catching its breath, but the situation remains fragile.

A Structural Deficit Beneath the Chaos

Beneath the noise, the supply-demand picture tells a different story. The Silver Institute is forecasting a structural market deficit of 46.3 million ounces for 2026. On the demand side, jewelry and silverware purchases are expected to decline by double digits due to high prices, while demand for bars and coins is projected to jump 18%.

The gold-silver ratio has climbed to 62.62, above the April average of roughly 59-61 but still below the modern long-term average of about 70:1. This suggests silver is no longer cheap relative to gold by historical standards.

There are tentative signs of stabilization in the physical market. According to the Shanghai Metals Market, inquiries have picked up, price quotes have firmed, and most transactions are being executed at parity. After several extreme stress tests, the metal has demonstrated a degree of resilience — suggesting limited further downside, provided geopolitics does not escalate again.