Take-Two Interactive: Losses Hit $4 Billion, but GTA VI Pre-Order Leak Spurs 11% Rally Ahead of Earnings

Take-Two Interactive’s stock is defying a grim financial picture. Shares closed the week at €208.60, up more than 11% in the span of seven days, as investors piled into the stock on the back of a leaked email suggesting an imminent Grand Theft Auto VI pre-order window. The rally comes even as the gaming giant carries a net loss of $4.0 billion on trailing twelve-month revenue of $6.6 billion.

The catalyst for the surge? A Best Buy affiliate marketing email, confirmed as authentic by Insider Gaming, indicated that physical pre-orders for GTA VI would open from May 18 to 21. Neither Rockstar Games nor Take-Two has officially acknowledged the timeline. Market observers caution the email could have been a placeholder or an internal draft, but the market has already priced in the optimism. Options trading implies a roughly 9.4% swing in the stock around earnings on May 21 — the very day the supposed pre-order window closes.

The Earnings Call That Could Make or Break the Narrative

Take-Two reports its fourth fiscal quarter after the US market closes on May 21. Wedbush analysts have labeled the earnings call a “go/no-go” moment for the GTA VI release. They maintain an “Outperform” rating and a $300 price target, but stress that the numbers are secondary: “What matters is the call itself — investors will learn whether GTA VI remains on track for November 19, 2026.”

That date is the linchpin of the bull case. For the current fiscal year, Take-Two is guiding net bookings of up to $6.7 billion, with a fourth-quarter target of roughly $1.6 billion. The most recent quarter narrowed its loss to about $93 million, but the annual figure of $4 billion underscores the cost of developing blockbuster titles.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Take-Two?

Institutional Firepower Backs the GTA Cycle

UBS has named Take-Two a top pick in US gaming, setting a $330 price target that implies roughly 35% upside from current levels. The bank dismisses concerns about AI-driven competition for user attention, arguing the looming GTA VI release cycle and the first-year guidance for fiscal 2027 provide a “very defensible thesis.” Benchmark and DA Davidson stick with “Buy” ratings and $300 targets; DA Davidson points to strong player engagement in NBA 2K26 as an encouraging sign.

The stock now trades about 15% above its 50-day moving average of roughly €181, a gap that mirrors the widening disconnect between Take-Two’s near-term red ink and its long-term blue-sky pricing. Year to date, shares are still down nearly 3%, but the week’s rally has recouped much of that loss.

Portfolio Shifts and the Road Ahead

Take-Two is also reshaping its portfolio. The indie label Private Division is being wound down, allowing management to concentrate resources on live-service heavyweights — with GTA VI as the flagship. CEO Strauss Zelnick has repeatedly said the marketing campaign for the title will intensify in summer 2026. The leaked pre-order window, if real, would slot neatly into that timeline.

A fireside chat at the TD Cowen technology conference on May 27 gives Zelnick a platform to address questions about post-launch monetization and the strategic pivot away from smaller studios. For now, the market’s gaze is fixed on May 21. If the earnings call delivers confirmation of the GTA VI schedule, the rally may have further to run. If it hints at a delay, the 11% gain of the past week could vanish just as quickly.