TKMS: India’s Defence Minister Tours Kiel as Stock Sinks Below Key Level

The timing could hardly be more symbolic. As India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh walked the factory floor at thyssenkrupp Marine Systems’ (TKMS) Kiel shipyard on 22 and 23 April, inspecting the Type 212 submarines alongside his German counterpart Boris Pistorius, the company’s shares were sliding to €80.30 — a weekly loss of over nine percent that pushed the stock beneath its 50-day moving average.

The juxtaposition of high-level diplomacy and market jitters tells the story of a company caught between a bulging order book and short-term technical pressures. Since hitting its January high, TKMS shares have shed roughly 20 percent, though they still trade nearly 16 percent higher year-to-date.

India’s P75(I) Programme Nears a Decision Point

Singh’s visit was no routine factory tour. Industry insiders describe it as a final technical review ahead of a potential contract under India’s P75(I) submarine procurement programme, which seeks conventional boats equipped with air-independent propulsion systems. Official statements from both defence ministries hint that negotiations may be approaching a conclusion, though no binding agreements have been announced.

New Delhi is pursuing not just submarines but technology transfers and industrial partnerships as part of its broader naval modernisation push. Market observers view the intensive talks as a prelude to what could become one of the decade’s largest defence contracts for TKMS.

Canada’s Deadline Looms

The Indian courtship is not the only deadline on the calendar. On 29 April, revised bids are due for Canada’s Canadian Patrol Submarine Project. TKMS is understood to be one of two remaining contenders, with a final decision expected around mid-2026. Should both the Indian and Canadian programmes land in Kiel, the company’s shipyard capacity would be secured well into the 2040s.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TKMS?

A New COO Takes the Helm

Amid the diplomatic and commercial manoeuvring, TKMS is strengthening its management bench. Dr Andreas Görgen has been appointed chief operating officer, effective 15 May. He will take charge of executing an order book worth roughly €20 billion — a task made more complex by ongoing investments. TKMS is ploughing around €200 million into its Wismar facility, building a hybrid plant capable of constructing submarines and surface vessels in parallel. Görgen steps into the middle of that integration process.

Analyst Calm Amidst the Sell-Off

The share price slide has pushed the relative strength index to 32, flirting with oversold territory. But analysts at mwb research have maintained their buy recommendation, arguing that the fundamental picture remains intact. They caution, however, that the upcoming half-year results on 11 May could be distorted by statistical base effects from the prior year.

The operational numbers for the first quarter of fiscal 2025/26 offer some reassurance: revenue of €545 million and an adjusted EBIT margin of 4.8 percent. Management has raised its revenue growth forecast to between two and five percent. Yet the forward price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 sits at roughly 40 — a lofty multiple for a defence contractor with margins still in the early stages of expansion.

What the Half-Year Report Will Reveal

All eyes now turn to 11 May, when TKMS publishes its half-year report and hosts an investor call. The market will be watching closely to see whether the €20 billion order backlog begins translating into improved profitability — and whether the diplomatic momentum in Kiel and New Delhi can reverse the stock’s recent slide.