XPeng Juggles VW Alliance and MONA Debut as June Delivery Target Looms Large

A push by a prominent Volkswagen supervisory board member to manufacture XPeng models in German factories has injected a fresh strategic dimension into the Chinese EV maker’s narrative. Lower Saxony’s premier, Olaf Lies, is urging VW to co-develop and build vehicles with XPeng on home turf, a move designed to absorb overcapacity and safeguard jobs. The call underscores just how far the technological tables have turned: the ID.UNYX 08, a joint product that reached the Chinese market in just 24 months, has already caught investors’ attention.

Yet for all the alliance buzz, XPeng’s immediate test is a domestic one — and it is brutally numeric. The company guided for 100,000 to 106,000 deliveries in the second quarter. After handing over 31,011 vehicles in April and 32,158 in May, it has accumulated roughly 63,200 units. That means June must deliver at least 36,831 vehicles just to scrape the bottom of the range; hitting the upper end would require nearly 42,800.

The revenue target adds a second layer of pressure. XPeng has set its Q2 revenue goal at 19.6 billion to 20.8 billion renminbi, a steep climb from the 13.03 billion renminbi booked in the first quarter. The company itself blamed lackluster vehicle revenue in the opening months on weak delivery volumes — a direct link that leaves almost no room for error in June.

Operationally, there are bright spots. The flagship X9 people mover crossed 60,000 cumulative deliveries at the end of June. Analysts expect total June deliveries across all model lines to come in around 40,000 units, aided by exports to Europe and Australia. Meanwhile, XPeng’s new low-cost MONA series is set to expand: the L03 sedan, the second model in the AI-driven line, debuts in July 2026. Its predecessor, the MONA M03, has already sold more than 272,000 units. The L03 will feature a 15.6-inch touchscreen, a 26.8-inch head-up display, and over 72 percent soft-touch interior surfaces — and it will support the VLA 2.0 autonomous driving system slated for global rollout from 2027.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XPeng?

On the technology front, XPeng recently unveiled X-Mind, a visual chain-of-thought framework that simulates traffic scenarios before the vehicle acts. The system strengthens the company’s positioning in autonomous driving, though it has done little to move the stock in the short term.

That stock remains under pressure. Shares closed the week at €11.20, after a modest bounce to €11.44 in the following session. Year-to-date, the equity has lost around 34 percent, and it sits more than 53 percent below the 52-week high of €24.40 hit last November. The relative strength index stands at 38.1, still below the neutral 50 line, and the price is well under the 50-day moving average of €13.29. The cash pile of 42.09 billion renminbi at end-March provides cushion, but it has shrunk by 5.6 billion renminbi since the start of the year — a sign that the operating burn is real.

Two catalysts now dominate the calendar: the June delivery report, which will confirm whether XPeng has hit its self-imposed threshold, and the MONA L03 launch in July. Both will test whether the stock’s recent 24 percent monthly slide has exhausted itself or still has further to run.