Hellofresh Shares Slide as Analysts Question US Momentum and Costly Growth

Investors in the Berlin-based meal-kit company Hellofresh endured another bruising session on Friday, with the stock extending its prolonged decline as Wall Street analysts trimmed their outlooks and the market digested a weak set of quarterly results. The shares changed hands at €3.08 by midday, marking a loss of 9.2% on the day, and edging perilously close to the 52-week low of €3.06.

The sell-off came against a backdrop of broader market gains, making Hellofresh the clear laggard of the session. Since the start of the year, the stock has now shed roughly half of its value, underscoring just how far sentiment has shifted on a company that was once a pandemic-era darling.

Barclays Turns Bearish on US Demand

The most forceful warning came from Barclays, where analyst Andrew Ross downgraded the stock from “Equal Weight” to “Underweight” and slashed the price target from €4.40 to €3.10. Ross pointed to cooling demand in the United States, citing credit card data from June and July that suggested softer meal-kit sales. That weakness, he argued, could put the company’s revenue targets at risk.

Beyond the near-term demand picture, Ross raised deeper questions about the sustainability of Hellofresh’s growth model. Marketing spending, he noted, is increasingly failing to deliver the desired returns. If the company’s heavy investment in advertising and customer acquisition no longer moves the needle, the risk to future cash flow rises accordingly. The combination of sluggish demand and declining marketing efficiency has left investors uneasy about the company’s long-term profitability.

UBS Cautious on Ambitious Targets

UBS also weighed in with a more cautious stance. Analyst Jo Barnet-Lamb trimmed the price target from €4.70 to €3.60 while keeping a “Neutral” rating. Barnet-Lamb described the company’s stated goals as increasingly ambitious and flagged the upcoming “Back-to-School” season as a critical test. Should the expected seasonal uptick fail to materialize, pressure on management could intensify.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hellofresh?

The analyst actions followed Thursday’s release of second-quarter results, which laid bare the operational strain. Currency-adjusted revenue fell 7.8% year-on-year to roughly €1.5 billion, down from €1.7 billion in the prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA dropped to €120.6 million from €158.5 million, while net income shrank to €2.8 million from €13.3 million. Earnings per share came in at just €0.02, far below the €0.15 analysts had penciled in.

Weakness Across Segments and a Trimmed Outlook

The weakness was broad-based. Meal-kit revenue declined 8.9% on a currency-adjusted basis, and even the Ready-to-Eat segment — long seen as a growth engine — slipped 8.4%. Total orders fell approximately 14% to around 22 million. Free cash flow for the first half of 2026 stood at €49.4 million, a steep drop from €156.4 million a year earlier.

Management responded by narrowing expectations for the full year. The adjusted EBITDA guidance of €375 million to €425 million was maintained, but the company now anticipates currency-adjusted revenue to land at the lower end of its previously guided range of minus 3% to minus 6%. An ongoing efficiency program is intended to stabilize costs, with 85% of planned measures already implemented by the end of the first half.

A Lone Bull Remains

While most of the Street turned more cautious — JPMorgan also characterized the operational performance and falling order numbers as weak — Jefferies stands apart. The bank retains a “Buy” rating with a price target of €8.35, a notable outlier in a consensus that has grown increasingly skeptical.

Looking ahead, management is expected to present its strategy for the second half at investor conferences in Hamburg and Munich in late August and September. Whether that will be enough to reassure investors remains an open question, but with the stock trading near its lows and analyst warnings stacking up, the near-term path looks fraught.