Almonty Stock Faces Critical Market Test

Almonty Industries confronts a pivotal moment as 120-day lock-up restrictions from its July Nasdaq listing are set to expire, potentially flooding the market with additional shares. This comes amid contrasting signals from market analysts who have recently upgraded their outlook on the tungsten producer, creating a potentially volatile scenario for investors.

Lock-Up Expiration Creates Supply Pressure

Trading restrictions on various Almonty securities—including warrants, convertible bonds, and shares held by directors and management—expire today. These limitations were established on July 14, 2025, as part of the company’s successful $90 million Nasdaq Capital Market listing.

While Almonty shares gained 2.14% to reach $7.15 on November 10, they remain below recent peak levels. The stock’s performance this year has been remarkable, surging over 400% since January, driven primarily by tungsten prices reaching multi-year highs between $580 and $645 per metric ton.

Strong Profit Turnaround Despite Revenue Shortfall

Almonty’s third-quarter results, released November 3, revealed a dramatic financial turnaround. The company reported net earnings of $33.2 million (diluted EPS: $0.13), a substantial improvement from the $5.3 million loss recorded during the same period last year. This reversal was largely powered by a $34.5 million gain from the revaluation of warrant liabilities.

Revenue increased 28% to $8.7 million, though this figure fell short of FactSet’s $11.3 million estimate. The revenue growth was attributed to stronger tungsten pricing and consistent production output from the Panasqueira mine in Portugal.

The company’s liquidity position strengthened significantly, with cash reserves swelling to $111.6 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to just $7.8 million at the end of 2024.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Analyst Confidence Remains Strong

Despite the revenue disappointment, financial analysts have maintained bullish positions on Almonty. B. Riley Securities raised its price target from $7 to $10 while reaffirming its buy recommendation, citing growing confidence in the company’s strategic positioning ahead of the completion of its Sangdong mine in South Korea.

Diamond Equity Research set an even more optimistic target of C$11 per share, pointing to strengthened tungsten prices and reduced execution risk following the Nasdaq listing.

Geopolitical Tensions Enhance Tungsten’s Strategic Value

Almonty stands to benefit from escalating geopolitical tensions that have positioned tungsten as a critical strategic mineral. As a leading non-Chinese tungsten supplier, the company is well-placed to serve defense and high-technology supply chains.

Construction of the Sangdong mine—destined to become the largest tungsten operation in the Western world—is nearing completion. In October, Almonty expanded its portfolio with the $10 million acquisition of the Genting Browns Lake project in Montana, with U.S. production expected to commence in the second half of 2026.

Industry specialists anticipate structural support for tungsten prices in the $400-$450 per metric ton range, driven by constrained supply outside China and increasing defense sector demand.