Analyst Confidence Rises for Royal Gold’s Stock Trajectory

Wall Street sentiment is providing fresh momentum for Royal Gold shares. As the precious metal itself trades near record highs, market experts see additional upside potential for this specialized royalty company. However, the outlook from major investors is not uniformly positive.

Strong Revenue Growth Amid Earnings Shortfall

The company’s recent fundamentals present a mixed picture. For the third quarter, Royal Gold reported a substantial 30.1% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $250.23 million. Despite this strong top-line performance, the company’s earnings fell short of analyst projections. It posted an adjusted earnings per share of $2.06, missing the consensus estimate of $2.30. In response to this earnings disappointment, management has maintained its commitment to shareholder returns, announcing an increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.475 per share.

Jefferies Lifts Price Target, Affirms Bullish Stance

Adding to the optimistic case, analysts at investment bank Jefferies have recently boosted their outlook for the firm. They raised their price target from $261 to $270 per share, reiterating their “Buy” recommendation. The bank has named Royal Gold as one of its preferred selections within the gold sector for the coming year, 2026. This upgraded assessment is grounded in expectations for expanding sector-wide margins and growing free cash flow. Jefferies strategists believe the company is well-positioned to benefit from sustained high gold prices while largely avoiding the operational cost pressures faced by traditional mining operators.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Royal Gold?

Institutional Investors Send Diverging Signals

While analyst opinion from Jefferies is clearly bullish, activity among major institutional holders reveals a more nuanced stance. During the second quarter of 2025, Gabelli Funds LLC reduced its stake by 15%, selling approximately 39,100 shares. This move contrasts with actions taken by other large investors, such as Norges Bank, which added to its position. These conflicting transactions suggest that expectations for near-term share price performance are not aligned across the investment community.

With Jefferies’ new price target standing notably above the market consensus, attention now shifts to the company’s ability to convert its impressive revenue growth into stronger bottom-line results. Upcoming quarterly reports will be closely watched to determine if Royal Gold can meet these elevated expectations.