Intuit’s Restructuring Test: Can Cost Cuts and AI Narrative Reverse the Slide?

Intuit finds itself in a peculiar bind: it delivered a solid fiscal third quarter, yet its share price has been slashed by nearly half since the start of the year. At €275.00, the stock is hovering barely above a 52-week low of €264.40, a stark contrast to the operating momentum the company continues to generate. The market’s verdict has been brutal, and the question now is whether a bold restructuring and an AI pivot can restore investor confidence.

A slew of analysts have responded to the post-earnings selloff by recalibrating their targets. TD Cowen cut its price objective from $576 to $504 while maintaining a buy rating, a move echoed by Northcoast Research, KeyCorp, Wells Fargo, Deutsche Bank and Jefferies, all of which lowered their estimates. Freedom Capital went further, downgrading the stock from “Strong Buy” to “Hold.” Yet not all on Wall Street have turned bearish. Morgan Stanley’s Keith Weiss reaffirmed his “Overweight” stance and named Intuit his top pick in large-cap software, with a price target of €580. The broader analyst consensus — 25 buy, six hold and one sell, according to MarketBeat — still calls for “Moderate Buy,” with an average target of $555 (roughly €546). That implies roughly 100% upside from current levels, a tempting proposition if the underlying thesis holds.

The numbers themselves offer little reason for alarm. Third-quarter revenue reached $8.6 billion, a 10% year-over-year gain, with adjusted earnings per share of $12.80. The Global Business Solutions segment shone, posting 15% growth to $3.3 billion, while the online ecosystem expanded 19% and QuickBooks Online Accounting surged 22%, driven by price increases, customer acquisition and a favorable product mix. Credit Karma added $631 million, up 15%, buoyed by strength in personal loans, auto insurance and mortgages. Management lifted its full-year guidance to $21.34–$21.37 billion in revenue, representing 13–14% growth, and to $23.80–$23.85 in adjusted EPS.

The trouble lies not in the quarterly beat but in the durability of Intuit’s core tax software franchise. TurboTax revenue rose 7% to $4.4 billion, yet the company expects the number of online filers to shrink roughly 2% this fiscal year, with its e-file market share slipping about one percentage point. In response, Intuit is cutting 17% of its workforce — approximately 3,000 employees — with restructuring costs estimated at $300–$340 million, to be booked in the fourth quarter. Management frames the move as an organizational streamlining that will free up resources for artificial intelligence investments. The counterargument is that such deep cuts so soon after the peak tax season raise questions about the quality of growth.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Intuit?

The company’s balance sheet, however, provides a buffer. With $6.8 billion in cash against $6.2 billion in debt, Intuit bought back $1.6 billion in shares during the quarter and announced a new $8 billion repurchase program — signaling management’s conviction that the stock is undervalued.

Technically, the stock is deeply oversold. The relative strength index sits at 30.8, just above the threshold for an oversold reading. The 50-day moving average of €346.58 and the 200-day average at €477.31 present significant resistance levels should a recovery materialize. But near-term catalysts are largely macro. This holiday-shortened week brings a parade of data: consumer confidence on Tuesday, the second reading of first-quarter GDP on Thursday, and personal income and spending numbers on Friday. For Intuit, these releases carry double-edged implications — higher interest rate expectations would pressure software valuations directly, while consumer trends influence demand for tax and credit products.

The market is demanding proof that AI-driven product innovations and the higher-margin tax business can sustain core earnings without cannibalizing the traditional tax franchise. Until that evidence is clear, the stock will remain sensitive to analyst commentary and macro surprises rather than operational metrics. The 52-week low of €264.40 is the last line of defense — and the next test of whether Intuit’s drastic restructuring can turn the tide.