Novo Nordisk Tests Resistance Near Overbought as Buyback and Oral Wegovy Drive Sentiment

Novo Nordisk closed the week at €43.32, adding 1.29% on Friday alone, as a wave of analyst upgrades and a hefty share buyback programme helped the stock extend its recovery from the March low. Over the past 30 days, the shares have gained nearly 17%, yet they remain roughly 29% below the all-time high of €61.20 touched in July 2025.

Two Analysts Lift Targets, One Turns Bullish

HSBC raised its price target to 300 Danish kroner from 280, maintaining a “Hold” rating and pointing to the buyback as a key driver of the recent rally. Danske Bank went further, issuing a new target of 365 kroner with a Buy recommendation. The broader analyst community remains cautiously optimistic: S&P Global’s survey of 14 analysts yields a consensus target of $46.72, with estimates ranging from $39.56 to $64.19, and the majority rate the stock a Buy.

Buyback Engine Running at Full Speed

Since February 4, 2026, Novo Nordisk has been executing a buyback programme of up to 15 billion Danish kroner over twelve months. In the current tranche, running from May 6, 2026 to February 1, 2027, the company intends to repurchase B-shares worth up to 11.2 billion kroner. Through July 3, it had bought back roughly 23 million B-shares at an average price of 270.32 kroner each, spending about 6.2 billion kroner. The total treasury now stands at nearly 40.2 million B-shares, equivalent to 0.9% of share capital. The effect is twofold: fewer shares outstanding mechanically boost earnings per share, and the programme provides a steady buyer in the market.

Chart Signals Caution Despite Momentum

The stock currently trades 9.6% above its 50-day moving average of €39.51 and 6.7% above the 200-day average of €40.60. The recovery from the March trough of €30.25 amounts to over 43%. However, the relative strength index at 66 signals that the stock is approaching overbought territory, a technical warning that some traders interpret as a risk of short-term pullback even if the broader trend remains intact.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Oral Wegovy Gains Ground in UK and US

Novo Nordisk is also broadening its pipeline. The oral version of Wegovy launched in the UK for private patients, priced at £69 for a starter pack and £189 for a monthly top dose, though the NHS has not yet agreed to cover the cost. Clinical data show weight loss of up to 17% over 52 weeks, and the UK medicines agency has expanded semaglutide’s approval to include advanced liver fibrosis. In the US, the oral pill has already racked up over three million prescriptions in just five months, the majority from first-time users. Separately, the company inked a non-exclusive research agreement with Vivani Medical to evaluate NPM-139, a semaglutide implant using Vivani’s NanoPortal technology. The deal carries no upfront payment, milestones, or royalties; Vivani plans a first human trial in mid-2026.

Korean Battlefield Remains a Drag

Competitive pressure in South Korea continues to weigh on the narrative. Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro generated first‑quarter revenue of roughly 323.2 billion won, more than triple Wegovy’s 104 billion won. Novo Nordisk Korea responded by slashing the wholesale price of Wegovy by about 40% and merging its diabetes and obesity divisions earlier this month – a move analysts interpret as defensive restructuring. Lilly has since intensified the fight by introducing additional high‑dose Mounjaro variants in June. In the US, Novo’s largest market, CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC that Wegovy now captures 65% of all new prescriptions, calling it a “turnaround situation.” Still, Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound are growing strongly, keeping the global GLP-1 rivalry fierce.

The upcoming half‑year results will be the next major catalyst. They will reveal whether the recent stock recovery is underpinned by genuine operational progress or remains largely technical and buyback‑driven.