Siemens Healthineers Shares Test Support After China Diagnostics Hit Sinks Earnings and Guidance

The structural breakdown in China’s diagnostics market has sent Siemens Healthineers shares spiralling to their weakest level in a year, forcing management to slash full-year targets and sparking a debate on how deep the damage will run. The stock touched a 52-week low of €33.50 earlier this week before clawing back to around €33.75 — a far cry from its 2024 peak and roughly 21% beneath its 200-day moving average of €42.85. The 200-day line, a key technical benchmark, now sits a chasm away, underscoring the severity of the downturn.

The catalyst was the second-quarter earnings release in May, which revealed a stark deterioration in the lab diagnostics business. Adjusted operating profit landed at €836 million, missing the analyst consensus of €868 million, while the diagnostics segment’s margin collapsed to just 0.9%. Revenue in that division shrank 6.5% as China’s volume-based procurement programmes and lower reimbursement rates ate into profitability. The adjusted earnings per share of €0.53 stagnated year-on-year, hardly the kind of stability investors had hoped for from a MedTech bellwether.

In response, the board trimmed its comparable revenue growth forecast to a range of 4.5% to 5.0%, down from the earlier 5.0% to 6.0%, and guided for adjusted EPS of €2.20 to €2.30 for the fiscal year ending in September. The downgrade landed like a weight on the stock, which has shed nearly a quarter of its market value since the start of the year. Yet not all analysts have thrown in the towel. JPMorgan maintains an “overweight” rating, albeit with a reduced price target of €55.80 from €61.30, betting that imaging and cancer therapy will offset the diagnostics drag. Jefferies also keeps a buy recommendation but cut its target to €50, while Deutsche Bank Research is more cautious, sticking with a hold and a target of just €38. The consensus average price target of €49.06 still implies upside of more than 40% from current levels, and a dividend of €1.00 per share yields just under 3%.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Siemens Healthineers?

Beyond the immediate profit squeeze, a structural shift looms. Siemens AG, the parent company, is pressing ahead with the full separation of its remaining stake in the medical-technology unit. A shareholder vote on the spin-off is slated for early 2027, which would release Siemens Healthineers into complete independence. The move comes as management hits the road — the company presented at the Berenberg European Conference in New York this week, with further stops in London and virtual roadshows scheduled — to sell its “Elevating Health Globally” strategy to institutional investors.

The next make-or-break moment arrives in July with the third-quarter report. CFO Jochen Schmitz has already warned that rising logistics and raw-material costs will weigh on earnings by roughly €0.05 per share for the full year. If the diagnostics segment shows early signs of stabilisation, the stock could stage a recovery; if the deterioration continues, the recent low of €33.50 may give way to another leg lower. The RSI has rebounded to 60, signalling that the oversold condition has dissipated, but the chart remains deeply bearish. With the 200-day moving average still far overhead, any bounce must prove sustainable before the market can call a true bottom.