Qualcomm’s Robot Bet and Data Center Push Set Stage for a High-Stakes Investor Showdown

Qualcomm is sprinting toward June 24 with two very different growth narratives pulling the stock in opposite directions. The chipmaker has placed a $1.4 billion wager on German robotics startup Neura Robotics while simultaneously unveiling a dedicated data center brand dubbed “Dragonfly” — moves designed to wean the company off its smartphone dependency. But the market remains deeply sceptical: the share price has skidded 18% from its 52-week high, and Wall Street analysts are locked in a bitter tug-of-war over the stock’s direction.

The Neura Robotics investment, announced on June 10, is the largest ever for a full-stack robotics company, according to Dealroom, valuing the startup at $7 billion. Qualcomm joined a heavyweight investor group that includes Amazon, Nvidia, Bosch, Schaeffler and crypto giant Tether. The capital will be used to produce millions of robots by 2030 and expand Neura’s “Neuraverse” software platform. Qualcomm’s Nakul Duggal framed the logic plainly: “Physical AI is the next big evolution of computing.” Robots will run on Qualcomm’s IQ10 processors and be trained via the Neuraverse ecosystem, signalling the company’s intent to embed itself in the physical AI market.

On the data center front, Qualcomm is rolling out a distinct brand separate from its Snapdragon line. Dragonfly will encompass server processors, AI accelerators and custom silicon — and CEO Cristiano Amon has already promised that a leading hyperscaler will take delivery later this calendar year, earlier than the originally targeted fiscal 2027. Analysts are pencilling in medium-term data center revenue above $3 billion, with JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee floating a long-term target of $35 billion by the end of the decade. The automotive division adds another pillar, posting nearly 40% growth to $1.3 billion.

Yet the stock, currently at €182.86, remains well below its late-May peak of €222.90, despite a year-to-date gain of almost 24%. Recent turbulence has been severe: Nvidia’s RTX Spark chip knocked 11% off Qualcomm’s shares in a single session, and a report about ByteDance’s custom-chip deal reignited export-control worries, shaving off another 8%. A recovery of 4.8% came on June 12, buoyed by a macro relief rally tied to an Iran peace agreement and an upgraded price target from Wells Fargo.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Qualcomm?

That upgrade — from €160 to €230 — sits alongside a contrasting view from Bank of America. Analyst Vivek Arya reaffirmed a “Sell” rating with a €165 target on June 11, arguing that revenue and earnings per share will grow at a meagre 2% and 1% respectively from 2025 to 2028. He also flagged a structural risk: Apple could strip away as much as $8 billion in annual revenue from Qualcomm. Of the 47 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it a buy, 18 a hold, and one a sell, with a median price target of €195.

Adding an unexpected twist, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang publicly recommended buying Qualcomm stock during a talk in Seoul, praising its dominance in mobile chips. The endorsement triggered a 4.32% jump on Friday, lifting the share price to its current level. Huang made clear Nvidia has no plans to enter smartphone chips, instead focusing on AI data centers and robotics — areas where the two companies increasingly intersect.

Investors also have a near-term incentive: a quarterly dividend of $0.92 per share, payable on June 25, marking the 21st consecutive increase. But the real event is the investor day, when Amon must convince the market that the diversification into robotics, data centers and custom silicon adds up to a credible growth story. If he succeeds, the gap to the 52-week high could narrow quickly. If he stumbles, Bank of America’s pessimism may prove prophetic.