Bayer Juggles a $2.45 Billion Biotech Bet and a Washington Trade Probe

Bayer’s stock crept back above a closely watched technical threshold on Friday, but the real drama for the German healthcare group is playing out on two very different fronts: a freshly minted $2.45 billion ophthalmology deal and a new trade investigation in Washington that threatens to upend its U.S. drug business.

Shares closed at €37.81, nudging above the 50-day moving average of €37.80 — a level traders often read as a bullish signal. The stock added 2.13% on the day and roughly 5% for the week, recovering more than 50% from its 52-week trough of €25.09. Over the past twelve months, however, the shares are barely changed, still lagging the 52-week high of €49.93 by about 24%.

The immediate weight on the stock is a Section 301 investigation launched Friday by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Washington is examining whether Germany’s pricing policies for prescription drugs unfairly disadvantage American patients and manufacturers. Greer said the probe follows months of talks with Berlin that failed to resolve the issue. The trigger is a planned GKV savings package designed to plug a roughly €20 billion hole in Germany’s statutory health insurance system; a Bundestag vote on the plan has been pushed back to July 2026.

While no concrete penalties have been proposed, the investigation opens the door to tariffs on German-made medicines after a public hearing in September and a comment period that runs through August. Bayer maintains major R&D and production sites in Germany, meaning any punitive duties would hit its margins in North America directly. Until the hearing, the company’s export business carries a “concrete political risk”, as one analyst noted.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?

That regulatory cloud arrived just as Bayer closed a major pipeline acquisition. On June 17, the company completed its takeover of Perfuse Therapeutics, securing full rights to PER-001, an intravitreal implant with delayed drug release that is in Phase II trials for glaucoma and diabetic retinopathy. The upfront payment was $300 million, but the total deal value could reach $2.45 billion if all milestones are met. The acquisition bolsters Bayer’s ophthalmology pipeline at a time when the group is under pressure to show growth beyond its aging pharmaceutical portfolio.

Legal battles also continue to demand management’s attention. On June 15, Bayer filed an amended lawsuit against Johnson & Johnson, accusing the rival of promoting its prostate cancer drug Erleada with a flawed real-world analysis that makes it appear superior to Bayer’s Nubeqa. The complaint seeks a permanent injunction and unspecified damages.

The calendar for the next few weeks is packed with potential catalysts. Bayer reports second-quarter results on August 4, which will give investors the first hard look at how the trade uncertainty is affecting guidance. Before that, a Supreme Court ruling on glyphosate liability — expected in the coming days — could either end years of litigation uncertainty or prolong it. Between the trade probe, the court docket, and the biotech bet, Bayer is balancing more balls than at any point in recent memory.