ITM Power’s 400% Rally Creates a Divergence in Insider Moves and Analyst Views Ahead of a Key Subsidy Decision

The rally in ITM Power shares has been nothing short of extraordinary — a 400% advance over the past twelve months, with a further 16% surge on Monday alone. The trigger for the latest leg was a strategic alliance with global engineering firm Worley, which will integrate ITM’s Neptune V electrolyser into medium-sized hydrogen projects. Yet beneath the surface of this remarkable run, a more complex picture is emerging.

Trading volumes exploded to 13.2 million shares in a single session — a 168% spike over the daily average — as the stock touched 174.80 pence. But not everyone is buying. On platforms such as AJ Bell, ITM Power briefly became the most sold stock, unseating heavyweights like Shell. Retail investors are taking large profits, while institutional money continues to pile in.

Adding another layer to that divide, Chief Technology Officer Simon Bourne exercised options on 1.33 million shares on 30 April, at an average strike of 32 pence from the 2010 option plan. He then sold around 873,000 of those shares at an average price of 157.44 pence. ITM Power described the transaction as a “sell-to-cover” to meet the tax liability arising from the exercise. Bourne retains roughly 657,000 shares.

The timing is notable. CEO Dennis Schulz is taking the opposite approach: his 1.3 million shares will only vest if the company secures profitable contracts and the new Chronos manufacturing line in Sheffield starts on schedule. The message from the top is that the real reward depends on execution.

Operationally, the trend is improving. First-half revenue hit a record £18 million, and management has lifted its full-year forecast to as much as £43 million. The order book stands at £152 million, with 71% of contracts now considered profitable — a clear improvement from earlier, loss-making projects. However, the company remains in the red. The pre-tax loss widened to £45.4 million, while the operating deficit is estimated at around £30 million.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?

ITM Power is sitting on a strong cash base — net liquidity of nearly £200 million, according to Zeus Capital — and carries no debt. That gives the business more than three years of runway without needing a capital raise, according to analysts.

The rally has split the analyst community. Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to “Overweight” with a 170 pence target and expects the company to reach operating break-even as early as fiscal 2028. The bank’s revenue forecast of £169 million for that year sits 54% above consensus. Jefferies also turned bullish, raising its price target to 200 pence and citing lower capital costs and a more favourable policy backdrop. But Jefferies warns of an asymmetric risk profile: the downside scenario implies a 52% loss, while the upside potential is just 37%.

UBS remains the outlier, sticking with a “Neutral” rating and a 60 pence target, arguing the valuation has run well ahead of the fundamentals. The average analyst consensus target trades far below the current share price, and the relative strength index recently topped 91, flagging a clear overbought condition.

The next major test comes on 26 May, when the UK subsidy authority publishes its assessment of a £46.5 million grant for the Chronos production line. If the decision is positive, management will make a final investment call in June. The British government already holds a stake of just over 10% in ITM Power via its Great British Energy vehicle, so the outcome carries both strategic and political weight.

Beyond the subsidy verdict, two other catalysts loom in the coming weeks: the results of the UK’s Hydrogen Allocation Round 2 and a potential final investment decision on Uniper’s 120-megawatt project at Humber. Each could provide a further directional signal for a stock that has already outpaced most of its hydrogen peers. For now, the market is betting that the pieces are falling into place — but the insider moves suggest even those closest to the technology are hedging their bets.