Nel ASA’s €135 Million EU Backing and Samsung Platform Face a July Verdict on Commercial Traction

Nel ASA’s stock has more than halved from its May peak, yet the year-to-date gain of over 54% shows the market still sees potential in the Norwegian electrolyser specialist. The disconnect between a strong longer-term narrative and weak recent trading has become more pronounced as investors wait for orders to catch up with technology.

The share fell nearly 3% to €0.29 on Thursday, extending a slide that now amounts to more than 21% from the 52-week high of €0.37 reached in late May. While the stock remains comfortably above its 200-day moving average — a sign the medium-term uptrend is intact — the immediate momentum has stalled.

The cause of the recent weakness lies in the hard numbers from the first quarter. Order intake collapsed to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, a 73% plunge from a year earlier. The order backlog shrank 24% to 1.113 billion kroner, while revenue slipped 5% to 148 million kroner. Nel posted a loss per share of 0.08 kroner in the period, highlighting the gap between technological ambition and commercial traction.

That technological ambition, however, received a significant boost at the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam, where Nel together with Samsung E&A unveiled the CompassH2-A+ — a 100‑MW solution for pressurised alkaline electrolysis. The platform features Samsung’s integrated “Wrap Guarantee,” a single performance warranty covering the entire system that removes one of the biggest financing hurdles for large hydrogen projects.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

To turn that platform into a scalable business, Nel is massively expanding production capacity at Herøya in southern Norway. The initial target is 1 GW per year, with the option to scale to 4 GW depending on market demand. Funding for the ramp-up comes partly from the European Innovation Fund, which has granted up to €135 million to cover a large portion of the eligible industrialisation costs. The goal is to drive system costs below $1,450 per kilowatt for large projects. Nel also expects to receive an €11 million EU grant in the second quarter to support the alkaline platform’s industrialisation — a separate, near-term cash injection.

The company’s balance sheet provides a further cushion: cash stood at 1.443 billion kroner at the end of the first quarter. That gives management plenty of runway as it waits for the partnership with Samsung to translate into binding orders. The spinoff of the fueling station business last year has also sharpened Nel’s focus entirely on electrolysers.

Analysts remain cautious but not negative. Berenberg rates the stock a “Hold” with a target of 2.30 kroner, while Citi is also “Neutral” with a 2.40 kroner target. Both imply limited upside from current levels.

The next critical checkpoint arrives on July 15, when Nel publishes its second-quarter results. That report will reveal whether the new platform and the Herøya expansion are starting to generate the commercial inflows the market is waiting for. Until then, the gap between technological promise and order reality keeps the shares stuck in a waiting pattern.